2015 NBA Draft

I've got a story.  Tell me if you've heard it...

A team stuck in the doldrums for a very long time has a shot at the first pick in the draft and an opportunity to get a potentially game-changing big man.  But, led by a rookie coach and a part-time rookie executive, they win two of their last three games and don't end up with the worst record.  Fast forward a month and they end up as the only team that moves backwards in the lottery.  So, now, rather than probably drafting first, they are sitting at four.

Karma is a bitch.

Well, with all that as prelude, this Thursday is the coronation of what has been a terrible offseason already for the Knicks.  And the Warriors only put the final stamp on a title less than a week ago.

Since Karl-Anthony Towns is no longer an option, I hope the Knicks end up with his frontcourt mate from Kentucky, Willie Cauley-Stein.  He is a defensive stud and the Knicks could really use one of those.  But, now, since I said it, assuredly it will not happen.

Whatever's on My Mind

-Speaking of Karl Anthony-Towns, I liked this article about the two Kentucky big men who are both destined to be lottery picks this spring.

-I see the topic on cable news each night – why is the U.S. negotiating with Iran? The best answer that I’ve come across is that it represents the best way for the U.S. to get itself out of the Middle East. Create a balance of power between the regional powers (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel) and the U.S. does not need to do the heavy lifting anymore. I do not think that Iran is going to bomb Israel off the map – for starters, it is a case of mutually-assured destruction; but, more relevant, the animosity between Sunnis and Shias is far greater than any such hatred between Israel and (pick a country in the neighborhood).

-I am hopeful that my professional situation will be updated and expanded by the summer…

NBA Year in Review

One might says it's a bit early to do a year in review since there are still over 20 games left to the regular season, but the Knicks' offseason basically started before the New Year.

Here's what I'm hoping for: tank the rest of the way and get as high a pick as possible.  I like Karl Anthony-Towns from Kentucky as the choice.  And buy back into the second round to get someone like Dez Wells from Maryland.  I have no idea who they get in free agency, and if you have to roll over that cap space for a year, do it.

Just to keep some connection with what's going on, though, I'm pulling for the Cavs.

On My Mind

-It’s not really a secret that I have been rooting against the Miami Heat for the past 4 seasons. But, in the aftermath of the Spurs’ dominant win this year, I have to admit that I found Lebron James to be a sympathetic figure in defeat. Maybe it was because it looked like he was out there alone in the Finals, getting little help from his teammates. Or maybe it was because he seemed to be pretty gracious in defeat – the first one over to congratulate his opponents after the final buzzer. I don’t know if the window on Miami’s title hopes has closed (they definitely need to add some bench depth), but if it is, I’ll mark it by saying that Lebron is definitely the second best player of my lifetime. And, if he wants to come to my Knicks, we would welcome him with open arms.

-When the Iraq war started in 2003, I was still wet behind the ears and not smart enough to understand the ulterior motives behind the action. I’ve grown up a bit since then and am now fairly skeptical of most everything that my government does. Which is why I knew that the adventures in Syria would only lead to bigger problems. My instinct all along was that the real U.S. ally in the region would end up being Iran. Well, today I read an article that is both terrifying and a confirmation of my priors. The West has created a tinderbox out of the Middle East and we will all have to deal with it for many years to come.

-Of course, when you see articles like this one in the Gray Lady, where the case is made that global economies are struggling because there isn’t enough war…well, then, I guess everything makes a bit more sense.

Backup Plans

The NBA season is fast approaching and, until proven otherwise, the Heat are the pick.  Which means I am likely headed to another painful end for the Knicks in May.  That, and it's hard to get excited about a team where nothing got markedly better from last season, except the competition.

Which brings me to a strategy that some might term infidelity.  I am going to watch the Detroit Pistons because I think Andre Drummond is a player worth following.  The 20-year old center can't shoot free throws, is dating the star of iCarly, dunks and blocks anything in his vicinity, and is the only young player who resembles the prototype of what an NBA center should be.

The Knicks will always be my team, but I think something a bit more lighthearted and less angst-producing is needed.

"Not 1, not 2, not 3..."

I am about to write about the Miami Heat, as they are down 3-2 in the NBA Finals. The upshot is that they will now probably win the next two games. Nevertheless…

If I were going to describe the Heat in each of the past three seasons, it would go something like this:

-Season 1, angry and defiant.  No title.

-Season 2, humbled and driven.  NBA title.

-Season 3, a bit cocky and acting with a sense of entitlement. Remains to be seen, but currently against the ropes.

My first NBA post in a while

Disregard later maybe.  But, I remember reading an article early this season where Skip Bayless pointed out that Lebron had a long history of choking in the big moments -- then Game 6 in Boston last year, Miami rolls to a title, and suddenly all is forgiven and forgotten.  Did he really change that much, from someone who was not dependable in the clutch to a closer?  I don't know if Bayless was on to something, but tonight sure does offer us a great chance to find out the answer.

Indulge Me

I know what I wrote about 8 hours ago.  But my Knicks have won 7 straight.  They have 11 games left.  To win the title, it's the first to get 16 games in the playoffs.  Add that up and you have 34, one more than the relevant number that was recently threatened by Miami (and, yes, I know it only applies to the regular season, but, remember, you're indulging me right now).

I don't really expect them to win 34 straight, but that's the thing about sports.  It's a child's game, played by multimillionaires, and you're basically rooting for laundry.  Yet it gives you something to get excited about, even if it ultimately has no real impact on your life.  I have been a Knicks fan from the beginning.  They have not won a title in my time on this ball of dirt.  They have generally fielded competitive teams, but you always kind of knew that they weren't good enough.  There was the heartbreak of Game 5 of the 1993 Eastern Conference Finals (I remember having tears after that one, and feeling wounded for days afterwards).  There was being shot out of a title in Game 7 of the '94 Finals.  The brawl in the 1997 playoffs with the Heat, and all the suspensions that came afterwards that derailed a pretty good team.  The exciting run in '99, only to realize that they had no shot against the Spurs without Ewing.  There was the Jordan roadblock.  Now there is Lebron.  There was Isiah, and Dolan before, during and after.  The atrocious Allan Houston contract.  Then there was $100 million for Amar'e after Lebron turned us down, only to see D'Antoni run him into the ground in half a season (he has been injury prone ever since).  A tough road, and clearly Lebron has elevated himself to another level which makes the prospect of beating him 4 times in May (in fact, any May going forward) fairly dim.

So, while the commentary doesn't totally fit for Knicks fans (we haven't suffered quite so much), Bill Simmons offered some profound words to his friend Marc Stein, a long-suffering Manchester City fan a few years back that felt appropriate right now:

"Yeah, I get it. You're not even that mad. You just feel empty inside. You head into every big game assuming you will lose, and when it happens, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. You claim that you have your guard up, only deep down, that guard is lowered just enough that you're hoping against hope that THIS game will be different. Only it never is. "I get it," I said. I tried to explain to Steiny Mo that these things can turn only in the most dramatic of ways. It will never be a typical win. It will be a life experience. It will break you down in sections. It will take you to the abyss and back. You will have to be stripped of any and all hope, and then — and only then — will you see a light. That's the way these things work."

Anyway, time to wake up.

Curse of the Billy Goat

27 straight wins. Not much to add there. As a Knicks fan, I'm starting to feel like a Cubs fan. First it was Jordan, now it will be Lebron.

Re-assessing My Model

About two and a half years ago, I wrote that the team assembled in Miami would be good and win a few titles, but not as many as people thought.  Well, I was wrong (it's been that way a lot lately).  Lebron James is the second best player of my lifetime, and if he doesn't get injured, his team will probably win the title every year for the foreseeable future.

Random Stuff

- I found point #1 in this post to be pretty interesting. There is a comical irony to be observed in Post Keynesian theory. While these folks like to mock the neo-classicals and others for drawing suspect macro conclusions from micro phenomena, the author elucidates how they are apparently doing the exact same thing on one of their foundational issues: money creation.

- I read Singapore’s Success by Henri Ghesquiere (2007) in an effort to bone up on an economy that many tout as, well, a success. In a nutshell, the author praises policy that leads to higher savings rates and lower debt levels, limited social safety net provisions, lower taxes, public enterprises that are guided by market principles, flexible wages, a resistance to dependency culture, honest government, and a longer term vision. It’s not simply some formulaic approach, but there is a lot to be learned. The flip side is a slightly authoritarian government that intervenes frequently, albeit in a thought out and well-executed manner – in this case, there really does appear to be some benevolent dictator at the helm.

- While I haven’t said anything about it, trust me, I know exactly what’s happening in the NBA this season…

One More Thing...

I have seen much on the internet today about whether the Jeremy Lin drama is grounds for Knicks fans to turn their back on the team and saddle up next to the new guys in Brooklyn. If you’re a casual fan, I invite you to enjoy the subway ride to the Barclays Center. For the rest of us, the ones who have followed this team for decades, for who it has been a source of bonding with a parent (then and now), well, I have one thing to say: fuggedaboutit.

Sports really are a silly thing. Seinfeld said it best, you are essentially rooting for laundry. But, in so many ways, sporting events can be trigger points for memories that you want to hold on to. I remember watching Game 6 of the ’86 Series with my parents, incredulous when Ray Knight crossed home plate. I remember the epic ’99 run to the NBA Finals, specifically the 4-point play, and going out that night in the City, only to have it come up in practically every conversation. Or, more recently, the enjoyment I had from the 2008 Super Bowl, watching the Giants beat the undefeated juggernaut in the apartment that I grew up in. And, even now, my Dad and I can always talk about the Knicks.

So, no, I won’t be switching. And if you’ve been in the struggle long enough with this team (and, to put it in perspective, their last title predates my birth, but not by a lot), you look forward to that moment when it finally happens one season. Just like the Rangers in 1994.

And, one more thing, letting Jeremy Lin leave (maybe) is far from the most egregious offense out of this ownership. Anybody remember Isiah Thomas? Now, that was painful.

The Lin Saga

An interesting couple of days for the New York Knicks. By now you’re aware that Jeremy Lin is probably headed to the Houston Rockets. And, of course, I’m going to offer my take on it.

After a brief but well publicized run last season, the undrafted point guard out of Harvard is a free agent this summer. Because of a recent ruling pursued by the Players Association, Lin was granted early Bird rights, meaning that the Knicks were in a position to match any offer that he received, even though they couldn’t offer him the most money outright. So, as free agency approached, it became clear that the Knicks would let Lin seek out the best offer, and then they would be in a position to respond (with most expecting that he would end up back in New York). The Rockets became the clear primary suitor and agreed to a 4 year, $28 million deal with the neophyte, with only the first 3 years guaranteed.

Now, structure is important here, so let’s focus on it. Within those 3 guaranteed years, years 1 and 2 are for about $5 million, with the final year jumping to $10 million. In other words, a “poison pill” strategy. When dealing with a restricted free agent, where the old team is limited in its ability to go over the salary cap (and can only match) in order to keep the player, a highly punitive third year salary brings the luxury tax into play and might prevent the match from happening. In other words, because the Knicks are over the luxury tax threshold in that third year, they end up paying a dollar-for-dollar penalty to retain the player. Thus, the deal doesn’t cost the Knicks $10 million over that season, but $20 million.

Here’s where it gets interesting. After the initial terms of the deal circulated, it became clear that the Knicks would match. However, according to news reports, when contracts could officially be signed starting last Wednesday, Lin went back to the Rockets to try and get even more money in that third year with the information about what the Knicks planned to do. No sweat off the Rockets’ back, especially if it seemed unlikely that they were going to get the player. So $10 million in year 3 became more like $15 million, and the actual total cost jumped from $20 million to $30 million. And in an unexpected twist (as if there’s any other kind), the Knicks balked.

When thinking this whole scenario through, I deem that there are two possible methods to Lin’s madness. Either he wanted Houston all along, in which case, good for him, he got his team and more money. But, if he actually wanted to stay in New York (which seems to be the consensus view), then he was being penny wise and pound foolish. It’s hard to be a media darling on Madison Avenue…when you decide to leave Madison Avenue. It’s also worth noting that his story last season was as much about where he was doing it, as what he was doing. He is also dealing with an owner who is not a savvy business mind, and who if he feels scorned will bite his nose to spite his face. Moreover, I think I’ve been pretty clear about my doubts relating to his game. He is an out-of-control tweener who needs a veteran to help him learn the ropes…which the Knicks offer having brought in Jason Kidd (Houston currently lacks anything resembling a point guard to offer tutelage). But, the contract got pricier, Raymond Felton came back, and now Lin’s departure may be a fait accompli.

Still, in spite of all of those things, I think the Knicks should match. The contract actually is not that bad when put into context. At $5 million per in the first two years, it’s a pretty inexpensive option on his upside. And, even if he amounts to nothing, and the Knicks have to pay that huge salary in year 3, he is still a very tradable asset as a big expiring contract, and he does nothing to screw up the ability of management to press reset after the 2015 Finals.

So, they should keep him. Will they? Probably not.

Correction:  According to ESPN, the actual cost of the Lin contract in year 3 could be as high as $43 million.

Offseason Update

The Knicks have been busy.  I like the Kidd and Camby additions, both come cheap and fill holes (they probably need another 2-guard, with Fields likely going to Toronto and Shumpert still out for a bit, but that's not a huge problem going into the season).  I'm glad that Novak and Smith got re-upped.  I can handle matching the Lin contract, as it became a foregone conclusion after Nash went to the Lakers.  Nevertheless, none of it addresses the existential problem that this team faces -- Carmelo and Stoudemire do not mesh very well.

Add to the mix, with Dwight Howard likely headed to Brooklyn, it's possible that the Knicks won't even be the best team in New York.  A lot of it boils down to how the Anthony / Stoudemire project can work itself out.  I expect Carmelo to be a much better player this year, as it sounds like he is using the summer to get into great shape (playing on Team USA probably helps a lot).  I don't know what Amar'e  has been up to, other than getting engaged, but he tends to be a workout warrior (that is, when his body isn't breaking down).  Still, I am hesitant to put myself out there with a prediction again.  At least, not yet.

Another interesting reality to consider: Anthony, Stoudemire, Chandler, Lin, Kidd, and Camby will all be free agents following the 2015 Finals (and Shumpert will be a restricted free agent).  In other words, this group has 3 years to get it done.  If they don't, the front office will likely be pressing the reset button that summer.

Season Over

I posted about all the other games, so I'll chime in about the finale also.  From the outset, Miami continued the theme of playing harder than Oklahoma City.  Or at least more consistently hard.  So, Lebron gets the allusive ring and the accolades that come with playing, throughout these playoffs, better than we have ever seen him before.

If there's anything in the aftermath that has annoyed me, though, it is the way that so many sports media members are trying to paint this redemptive picture of James.  That we should all embrace him now for playing without the chip on his shoulder and stepping up when it mattered most.

I'm happy to credit him for playing as well as he did.  He led his team to victory.  But, that doesn't mean I have to like him and feel satisfied that he won.  Maybe I'm petty.  I tend to think I'm just consistent.

It's Done

I feel no need to watch Thursday's game because this series is over.  OKC did not play the full 48 minutes that they needed to.  Westbrook was a champ tonight.  Unfortunately, he didn't get much help.

The Heat in Perspective

Another post about the Miami Heat.

When the Big 3 came together in Miami, I am on record on this blog as writing that while it may be wishful thinking to believe that the team won't win any titles, that the idea of some sort of dynastic run was just as far-fetched.  Two years in and I am still comfortable with that position.  A few reasons:

1) Wade is like an NFL running back.  He is an incredibly physical player, but the wear and tear of playing that way is catching up to him.  If you were looking at his career arc, he is far closer to the end of his dominant years than the beginning or middle.

2) Chris Bosh is not the right third wheel.  They need a defensive anchor down low.  Someone like Tyson Chandler.

3) My view was that Miami was imbalanced and that someone else would overtake them as a more complete 1 to 9.  Well that team is playing them in the Finals right now.  Whether they win this year or not (and I'm not conceding anything yet), the Thunder have a far better shot of being like the '90s Bulls than does anyone else at the moment (barring injuries and salary cap issues).

So, in closing, I think this year might be Miami's best shot.  Again, I am not handing them a title yet.  Game 4 is crucial, and as Game 3 was OKC's first road game in their first Finals appearance, and came on the heels of a very disappointing loss at home, the outcome should not be a shock.  If the Heat can hold Durant down again, then it might be time to schedule the parade.  But, let's at least wait until Tuesday night to see if that happens.

Game 3

I listened to the first half in the car and then watched the second half at home.  There are two takeaways rattling around my head.

1) In making my prediction that the Thunder would win, I think I took for granted just how young they are.  Which is to say, I discounted the fact that the Heat are a veteran team who were in the Finals last year, and arguably took something away from that experience, even though they lost.  And tonight, it just seemed like OKC was not playing with the sense of urgency that you need to pull out these sorts of games.  On a dime, they would cut a 7-point lead down to 3, but then settle back into bad decisions and an unexpected lack of chemistry.  It's not too late, but there is an on/off button with this team that needs to get set to "on" for a full 48 minutes.

2) The Heat are up 2-1, but we have yet to see a vintage Durant offensive explosion.  I'm sure Miami's defense has something to do with it, but I think he's due.

And with that said, this series comes down to Game 4.  I just don't think the Thunder can win 3 straight if they go down 3-1.  The button better be "on" on Tuesday night.

Recap

Simply a fantastic game.  As well as Miami played in the first 24, I felt they should have been up by much more at the half, which left me believing that OKC would stage a comeback.  And it came in the fourth quarter.  Kevin Durant is just a remarkable offensive player.  But, between a bad no-call at the end and Lebron hitting a huge shot and some free throws, Miami gets the split and heads home.  From beginning to end, they played the better game.  But, in context, they had to leave everything out there.

Van Gundy and Breen were talking about human nature -- perhaps Oklahoma City did not come out with the same determination, still feeling good about the first win, while Miami was playing like everything was at stake.  And I don't disagree.  But, losing this game, no longer being able to take anything for granted, I think it's the wake-up call that was needed, if such a thing is possible in the last series of the season.  They nearly came back from 17 down on a night where they were terrible through the whole first half, Miami was desperate, and James/Wade/Bosh all played well.

Now the scene moves to South Beach.  As they say, it becomes a series once someone loses at home.  The Heat did what they needed to.  Let's see how the Thunder bounce back.  I think they will.

Game 2

I think the Thunder demonstrated the other night that they are the better team.  And after battling through the nerves in the first half of Game 1 en route to a victory going away, I expect the difference in teams to become even more obvious with each passing game.  Nevertheless, and in spite of the fact that I am not a big Lebron James fan following his free agent performance, I know that he is quite capable of being simply effervescent on the court.  And you never know when that might show up.