At this time of the year, I believe it's a requirement of writing a blog to post some predictions about the coming 12 months. Here's my try.
-The sun will come out tomorrow. Even if you subscribe to the most bearish, apocalyptic outcomes, know that the dust will eventually settle and mankind will move forward. It's probably important to remember that first. And often.
-The Europe situation will finally come to a head. My best guess is boatloads of money-printing by the ECB to try and keep the entity intact. I think it will lead to temporary relief, but not permanent.
-As the focus is then able to shift, I think the first cracks in Japan will start to emerge. It is my intention to get a position to capture some of that move. With my most likely focus on the currency.
-Gold's bull market is not over. Certainly not with all that's still wrong and how it will be "remedied". Accordingly, I think the $2,000 barrier will be crossed at some point during 2012.
-The stock market is a trickier call, with all the potential landmines out there. So, to keep it simple, but to put myself on the record, I think the S&P 500 will close higher on 12/31/12 than on 12/31/11 (or 12/30/11 for all the sticklers out there).
-The U.S. Treasury market will continue to be a beneficiary of the mess everywhere else in the world. So, while I think rates will eventually go substantially higher, this year is probably not that moment.
-We will see 2013. Despite what the Mayans think.
And with that, a happy new year to all. See you when the calendar turns.
