Quote of the Day

From Bill Barnwell at Grantland:

“You’ll hear a lot of quotes like this, and they’ll even occasionally get backed up by statistics; you’ve all seen the graphics that note how your favorite team is 37-2 when its star running back carries the ball 25 times or more. As noted in the very first Football Outsiders article from 2003, that’s a measure of effect, not cause. Teams chalk up large rushing attempt totals because they’re up by a comfortable margin in the second half and killing clock, not because they’re running the ball down the opposition’s throat in the first quarter.”

Failure?

An interesting piece today from Robert Kaplan at Stratfor. He tries to assess whether the Obama administration has been a failure in its foreign policy. Kaplan’s basic position is that the media often misses the real objective, in prioritizing action over the greater necessities of realism and caution, and therefore has spun a story that misses a lot of the relevant parts. Nevertheless, the jury is still out.

But, to elaborate a bit:

-Obama continues to deploy the navy and air force to all corners of the globe

-He actively uses drones in global hot spots (versus putting U.S. soldiers in harm’s way) and has killed more Al Qaeda leaders than Bush 2

-While not sending forces to Ukraine, Ukrainian troops have suddenly become much more disciplined and efficient in recent months, suggesting the presence of U.S. military advisors in the country

-The Syria episode did not put him in the most favorable light, but my view continues to be that not entering the fray and more forcefully trying to depose Assad was the right move –a view that has only been strengthened with realizations that what would have replaced Assad resembles the current ISIS threat in Iraq

-Where the U.S. was more involved, in Libya, it is now a chaotic no-man’s land where terrorists can roam free (with spillover effects in Mali)

-Given the other options on the table, trying to negotiate with Iran is also the right play

Still, to Kaplan’s thinking, the missing element is that Obama and Kerry, in trying to emulate Kissinger and James Baker before them, should have used greater brinksmanship and left their adversaries to wonder what the U.S. might do – this approach stands in contrast to the pre-announcement of no U.S. troops in Ukraine and not pressuring Iran in other ways while working towards an agreement. That’s the difference and why this administration engenders less respect, leaving itself open to criticism.

My personal views are a bit less imperialistic than Mr. Kaplan’s, but I still think he makes an interesting argument for why the narrative of Obama’s “inaction” is very misleading.

On Q2 GDP

“Of this 4% increase, the change in real private inventories added 1.66%. In other words GDP based on goods and services actually sold was only 2.34%. That changes in unsold goods, which is what inventories represent, should be part of final consumption is a dubious proposition…”

-Alasdair Macleod