Post Mortem

When I told my son last night that KD and Kyrie were heading to Brooklyn, he said "I hate the Nets" and stormed out of the room.  I get the frustration.  To be a Knicks fan is an exercise in heartache and perceived inequities.

But, if he were a little older, he would know that this organization has been a dumpster fire for a long time.  Jim Dolan is a disaster.  The culture with the team starts with him, and there are simply too many bad stories about this franchise during his tenure to ignore.  There are too many over-promises and miscalculations.  Too frequently they peddle hope, in the form of cap space, and then never even get the meetings with the top guys.  New York is still a draw, MSG should be a draw...but clearly you get most of that, plus a better-run organization, by going to Brooklyn right now.

I don't think the Nets will steal Knicks fans in droves.  There is a longevity to Knick fandom that has passed through generations, from parent to child, that is stronger than Dolan's ineptitude.  But, the team itself will continue to suffer as long as he is the face.  I don't think the perpetual failures will cease until he is no longer the guy in charge.

In the mean time...

2015 NBA Draft

I've got a story.  Tell me if you've heard it...

A team stuck in the doldrums for a very long time has a shot at the first pick in the draft and an opportunity to get a potentially game-changing big man.  But, led by a rookie coach and a part-time rookie executive, they win two of their last three games and don't end up with the worst record.  Fast forward a month and they end up as the only team that moves backwards in the lottery.  So, now, rather than probably drafting first, they are sitting at four.

Karma is a bitch.

Well, with all that as prelude, this Thursday is the coronation of what has been a terrible offseason already for the Knicks.  And the Warriors only put the final stamp on a title less than a week ago.

Since Karl-Anthony Towns is no longer an option, I hope the Knicks end up with his frontcourt mate from Kentucky, Willie Cauley-Stein.  He is a defensive stud and the Knicks could really use one of those.  But, now, since I said it, assuredly it will not happen.

NBA Year in Review

One might says it's a bit early to do a year in review since there are still over 20 games left to the regular season, but the Knicks' offseason basically started before the New Year.

Here's what I'm hoping for: tank the rest of the way and get as high a pick as possible.  I like Karl Anthony-Towns from Kentucky as the choice.  And buy back into the second round to get someone like Dez Wells from Maryland.  I have no idea who they get in free agency, and if you have to roll over that cap space for a year, do it.

Just to keep some connection with what's going on, though, I'm pulling for the Cavs.

De Ja Poo (cont.)

I think Tim Hardaway Jr. is a good player.  I think Iman Shumpert is a nice piece.  Say what you will about him, but I believe you can win a title with Carmelo Anthony as your best player.  But, after that, everyone is on the decline or already at the bottom.  I don't know what they can do to right this ship any time soon.  They have cap space in 2015, but will it really matter?

De Ja Poo

I don't know when it happened exactly, and I'm pretty sure it wasn't the case last season, but the Knicks are terrible.  Watching them lose stirs memories of an era when I bought a "Sell the Knicks" t-shirt.  They don't have their pick this year.  They don't have cap space.  And it feels like a real possibility that they will lose Carmelo this summer.  Thanks, Jim Dolan.

Backup Plans

The NBA season is fast approaching and, until proven otherwise, the Heat are the pick.  Which means I am likely headed to another painful end for the Knicks in May.  That, and it's hard to get excited about a team where nothing got markedly better from last season, except the competition.

Which brings me to a strategy that some might term infidelity.  I am going to watch the Detroit Pistons because I think Andre Drummond is a player worth following.  The 20-year old center can't shoot free throws, is dating the star of iCarly, dunks and blocks anything in his vicinity, and is the only young player who resembles the prototype of what an NBA center should be.

The Knicks will always be my team, but I think something a bit more lighthearted and less angst-producing is needed.

Indulge Me

I know what I wrote about 8 hours ago.  But my Knicks have won 7 straight.  They have 11 games left.  To win the title, it's the first to get 16 games in the playoffs.  Add that up and you have 34, one more than the relevant number that was recently threatened by Miami (and, yes, I know it only applies to the regular season, but, remember, you're indulging me right now).

I don't really expect them to win 34 straight, but that's the thing about sports.  It's a child's game, played by multimillionaires, and you're basically rooting for laundry.  Yet it gives you something to get excited about, even if it ultimately has no real impact on your life.  I have been a Knicks fan from the beginning.  They have not won a title in my time on this ball of dirt.  They have generally fielded competitive teams, but you always kind of knew that they weren't good enough.  There was the heartbreak of Game 5 of the 1993 Eastern Conference Finals (I remember having tears after that one, and feeling wounded for days afterwards).  There was being shot out of a title in Game 7 of the '94 Finals.  The brawl in the 1997 playoffs with the Heat, and all the suspensions that came afterwards that derailed a pretty good team.  The exciting run in '99, only to realize that they had no shot against the Spurs without Ewing.  There was the Jordan roadblock.  Now there is Lebron.  There was Isiah, and Dolan before, during and after.  The atrocious Allan Houston contract.  Then there was $100 million for Amar'e after Lebron turned us down, only to see D'Antoni run him into the ground in half a season (he has been injury prone ever since).  A tough road, and clearly Lebron has elevated himself to another level which makes the prospect of beating him 4 times in May (in fact, any May going forward) fairly dim.

So, while the commentary doesn't totally fit for Knicks fans (we haven't suffered quite so much), Bill Simmons offered some profound words to his friend Marc Stein, a long-suffering Manchester City fan a few years back that felt appropriate right now:

"Yeah, I get it. You're not even that mad. You just feel empty inside. You head into every big game assuming you will lose, and when it happens, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. You claim that you have your guard up, only deep down, that guard is lowered just enough that you're hoping against hope that THIS game will be different. Only it never is. "I get it," I said. I tried to explain to Steiny Mo that these things can turn only in the most dramatic of ways. It will never be a typical win. It will be a life experience. It will break you down in sections. It will take you to the abyss and back. You will have to be stripped of any and all hope, and then — and only then — will you see a light. That's the way these things work."

Anyway, time to wake up.

Curse of the Billy Goat

27 straight wins. Not much to add there. As a Knicks fan, I'm starting to feel like a Cubs fan. First it was Jordan, now it will be Lebron.

One More Thing...

I have seen much on the internet today about whether the Jeremy Lin drama is grounds for Knicks fans to turn their back on the team and saddle up next to the new guys in Brooklyn. If you’re a casual fan, I invite you to enjoy the subway ride to the Barclays Center. For the rest of us, the ones who have followed this team for decades, for who it has been a source of bonding with a parent (then and now), well, I have one thing to say: fuggedaboutit.

Sports really are a silly thing. Seinfeld said it best, you are essentially rooting for laundry. But, in so many ways, sporting events can be trigger points for memories that you want to hold on to. I remember watching Game 6 of the ’86 Series with my parents, incredulous when Ray Knight crossed home plate. I remember the epic ’99 run to the NBA Finals, specifically the 4-point play, and going out that night in the City, only to have it come up in practically every conversation. Or, more recently, the enjoyment I had from the 2008 Super Bowl, watching the Giants beat the undefeated juggernaut in the apartment that I grew up in. And, even now, my Dad and I can always talk about the Knicks.

So, no, I won’t be switching. And if you’ve been in the struggle long enough with this team (and, to put it in perspective, their last title predates my birth, but not by a lot), you look forward to that moment when it finally happens one season. Just like the Rangers in 1994.

And, one more thing, letting Jeremy Lin leave (maybe) is far from the most egregious offense out of this ownership. Anybody remember Isiah Thomas? Now, that was painful.

The Lin Saga

An interesting couple of days for the New York Knicks. By now you’re aware that Jeremy Lin is probably headed to the Houston Rockets. And, of course, I’m going to offer my take on it.

After a brief but well publicized run last season, the undrafted point guard out of Harvard is a free agent this summer. Because of a recent ruling pursued by the Players Association, Lin was granted early Bird rights, meaning that the Knicks were in a position to match any offer that he received, even though they couldn’t offer him the most money outright. So, as free agency approached, it became clear that the Knicks would let Lin seek out the best offer, and then they would be in a position to respond (with most expecting that he would end up back in New York). The Rockets became the clear primary suitor and agreed to a 4 year, $28 million deal with the neophyte, with only the first 3 years guaranteed.

Now, structure is important here, so let’s focus on it. Within those 3 guaranteed years, years 1 and 2 are for about $5 million, with the final year jumping to $10 million. In other words, a “poison pill” strategy. When dealing with a restricted free agent, where the old team is limited in its ability to go over the salary cap (and can only match) in order to keep the player, a highly punitive third year salary brings the luxury tax into play and might prevent the match from happening. In other words, because the Knicks are over the luxury tax threshold in that third year, they end up paying a dollar-for-dollar penalty to retain the player. Thus, the deal doesn’t cost the Knicks $10 million over that season, but $20 million.

Here’s where it gets interesting. After the initial terms of the deal circulated, it became clear that the Knicks would match. However, according to news reports, when contracts could officially be signed starting last Wednesday, Lin went back to the Rockets to try and get even more money in that third year with the information about what the Knicks planned to do. No sweat off the Rockets’ back, especially if it seemed unlikely that they were going to get the player. So $10 million in year 3 became more like $15 million, and the actual total cost jumped from $20 million to $30 million. And in an unexpected twist (as if there’s any other kind), the Knicks balked.

When thinking this whole scenario through, I deem that there are two possible methods to Lin’s madness. Either he wanted Houston all along, in which case, good for him, he got his team and more money. But, if he actually wanted to stay in New York (which seems to be the consensus view), then he was being penny wise and pound foolish. It’s hard to be a media darling on Madison Avenue…when you decide to leave Madison Avenue. It’s also worth noting that his story last season was as much about where he was doing it, as what he was doing. He is also dealing with an owner who is not a savvy business mind, and who if he feels scorned will bite his nose to spite his face. Moreover, I think I’ve been pretty clear about my doubts relating to his game. He is an out-of-control tweener who needs a veteran to help him learn the ropes…which the Knicks offer having brought in Jason Kidd (Houston currently lacks anything resembling a point guard to offer tutelage). But, the contract got pricier, Raymond Felton came back, and now Lin’s departure may be a fait accompli.

Still, in spite of all of those things, I think the Knicks should match. The contract actually is not that bad when put into context. At $5 million per in the first two years, it’s a pretty inexpensive option on his upside. And, even if he amounts to nothing, and the Knicks have to pay that huge salary in year 3, he is still a very tradable asset as a big expiring contract, and he does nothing to screw up the ability of management to press reset after the 2015 Finals.

So, they should keep him. Will they? Probably not.

Correction:  According to ESPN, the actual cost of the Lin contract in year 3 could be as high as $43 million.

Offseason Update

The Knicks have been busy.  I like the Kidd and Camby additions, both come cheap and fill holes (they probably need another 2-guard, with Fields likely going to Toronto and Shumpert still out for a bit, but that's not a huge problem going into the season).  I'm glad that Novak and Smith got re-upped.  I can handle matching the Lin contract, as it became a foregone conclusion after Nash went to the Lakers.  Nevertheless, none of it addresses the existential problem that this team faces -- Carmelo and Stoudemire do not mesh very well.

Add to the mix, with Dwight Howard likely headed to Brooklyn, it's possible that the Knicks won't even be the best team in New York.  A lot of it boils down to how the Anthony / Stoudemire project can work itself out.  I expect Carmelo to be a much better player this year, as it sounds like he is using the summer to get into great shape (playing on Team USA probably helps a lot).  I don't know what Amar'e  has been up to, other than getting engaged, but he tends to be a workout warrior (that is, when his body isn't breaking down).  Still, I am hesitant to put myself out there with a prediction again.  At least, not yet.

Another interesting reality to consider: Anthony, Stoudemire, Chandler, Lin, Kidd, and Camby will all be free agents following the 2015 Finals (and Shumpert will be a restricted free agent).  In other words, this group has 3 years to get it done.  If they don't, the front office will likely be pressing the reset button that summer.

Faith Rewarded

"Sometimes people deserve to have their faith rewarded."

-Bruce Wayne

On this day, Carmelo saved Gotham.

My Summer Blueprint

With a season that looks to be over in about a week, I've been thinking through what the Knicks can do in the offseason to get better.  And my attention has turned to the Brooklyn Nets.

As it stands, the Nets will probably lose Deron Williams unless they can get him some better teammates.  However, they have a lot of cap space and can take back more in salaries than they give up in order to make it happen.  Which brings me to my suggestion: sign-and-trade free agent Kris Humphries to the Knicks for Amar'e Stoudemire.  Stoudemire could be the type of running mate that gets Williams excited to stay, would have more room to operate than he does currently, and presents an interesting pairing at forward with Gerald Wallace.

For the Knicks, Humphries is a much better fit.  He's a really good rebounder, a good defender, and gets his points the same way that Tyson Chandler does.  Which is to say that he doesn't need plays run for him.  And that makes him a great teammate for Carmelo Anthony. (Of course, there is the Page Six issue that Anthony's wife is supposedly friends with Kim Kardashian, but we digress.)  If it happened, I would be very happy.

As for other issues, the Knicks have a bunch of free agents to deal with themselves.  The list includes Jeremy Lin, Landry Fields, J.R. Smith, Steve Novak and Baron Davis.  My preference would be to get Smith and Novak back, and then spend time trying to sign a reliable point guard for the mid-level exception (Steve Nash, anyone?).

If none of this comes to pass, my contingency plan is to move Stoudemire to the bench, and turn him into the frontcourt version of J.R. Smith.

In the mean time, hopefully game 3 goes New York's way.

Let's just say it...

Shumpert is a bigger loss than Stoudemire.

First Derivative

Any investment manager, broker, or CNBC pundit worth a lick will tell you that it's a healthy exercise to review your portfolio periodically and make sure that the thesis and rationale behind each position continues to make sense.  Today I took a slightly different tact.  Rather than looking at what I have already, I challenged myself to identify the investment ideas that are compelling, but which I don't have enough (if any) exposure to currently.  Simply put, I jotted down an idea and then tried to come up with several ways that I could capture it.  It was six items long and I feel comfortable that I had some semblance of a path for each.  Not all are necessarily feasible at this moment, but it got me excited about the possibilites.  And in the end, part of the joy that I get out of this stuff is in trying to be a unique thinker about the trends that are coming and going and the ways to monetize them.

As a final note, the Knicks got smoked today.  But, fortunately, whether you lose by 1 or 33, it still only counts as one game.

Why not...

Knicks in 6.

And while we're at it, I suggest moving Stoudemire to the bench and Carmelo to the 4 (where he was playing really well in Stoudemire's absence).  Amar'e becomes instant offense off the bench, where he replaces Chandler or Anthony when he comes in and has more room to operate.

My Take

A coach with a defensive mindset has them understanding which end of the court is more important, and they're 9-0 at home under him. A great frontcourt-backcourt tandem of elite defensive players is imposing its will on games. One of the best offensive players of his generation finally remembers who he is and what he does. An oft-injured but talented veteran point guard seems to be getting his sea legs under him. And all of this as we fast approach the playoffs.

State of the Knicks

50 games in and hanging on to the 8th seed. They are a better team than that, but another recent batch of injuries could put their postseason life in peril.

It only seems appropriate that Amar'e would start to play well and then suffer a back injury that leaves him out indefinitely. His health was always the risk with that signing. And why I wish the Howard trade that I proposed some weeks back had come to pass.

I simply love Tyson Chandler. A fierce competitor, a defensive anchor, exactly what this team needs in the middle. Instead of Stoudemire, if he was paired with a power forward like Serge Ibaka, this team would be a really tough out in the playoffs. But, that is but a pipe dream.

The offensive weapons are there. The consistency is not (even after this 7-1 stretch). They have gutted out some wins (to my surprise), but I'm still not convinced. Should be interesting to see how it turns out.

Ice Water

One more observation about the Knicks-Sixers game. Previously, I have not been shy about questioning whether Jeremy Lin is for real. Last night he impressed me. Arguably, he had a lousy game. But, in the fourth quarter he stepped up, going 10-10 from the line. That's the sort of way that you get in my good graces.

Dee-Fense

That game in Philly was a grind. And they won. Keep proving me wrong.