The subtitle is Opportunities From the End of Peak Oil and the authors are Daniel Lacalle and Diego Parrilla (2015).
To put forth the thesis of the book directly, the last barrel of oil left will be worth zero, not millions. In other words, for all the fears of depleting energy resources, the notion of peak oil and a return to the stone age is not realistic. There will always be enough oil, and eventually the economics of alternatives will evolve in a way that allows fossil fuels to be replaced entirely.
Thus, where peak oil forecasters continually get it wrong is in underestimating the possibility for new discoveries, new additions and new technologies that enable conservation, substitution and demand destruction. So, as if I needed another reminder, economics invariably drive us to solutions that are at one time unthinkable.
Showing posts with label Oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oil. Show all posts
Friday, February 10, 2017
Monday, January 30, 2017
Oil
From Louis Gave (on Real Vision):
“2 and 1/2 years ago Xi Jinping went to Moscow and signed a 50 year deal where China was buying natural gas at a fixed price, which was like half the market from Russia, paid for in renminbi. Now when you think that, who's the marginal buyer of oil in the world? It's China. For all the talk about how Chinese growth is collapsing, et cetera, Chinese oil imports last year were up 16% year on year to new all-time highs. So China needs energy, and keeps on. The reason oil went to $150 was China's emergence. So when China does a side deal with Russia and says basically, hey, we're covered here, then if your marginal buyer disappears, then all of a sudden the cost of oil doesn't go to the price where the marginal buyer's willing to pay, it goes to the price of where the marginal producer produces it. And so it eventually went-- And now we're obviously at the marginal cost. But that marginal cost may go down again. Because now with Donald Trump, we're going to get the Keystone Pipeline. I mean, you go to Alberta, your oil is at $25 a barrel. It's stuck there because it can't move. You put the Keystone Pipeline in and oil price goes down…”
“2 and 1/2 years ago Xi Jinping went to Moscow and signed a 50 year deal where China was buying natural gas at a fixed price, which was like half the market from Russia, paid for in renminbi. Now when you think that, who's the marginal buyer of oil in the world? It's China. For all the talk about how Chinese growth is collapsing, et cetera, Chinese oil imports last year were up 16% year on year to new all-time highs. So China needs energy, and keeps on. The reason oil went to $150 was China's emergence. So when China does a side deal with Russia and says basically, hey, we're covered here, then if your marginal buyer disappears, then all of a sudden the cost of oil doesn't go to the price where the marginal buyer's willing to pay, it goes to the price of where the marginal producer produces it. And so it eventually went-- And now we're obviously at the marginal cost. But that marginal cost may go down again. Because now with Donald Trump, we're going to get the Keystone Pipeline. I mean, you go to Alberta, your oil is at $25 a barrel. It's stuck there because it can't move. You put the Keystone Pipeline in and oil price goes down…”
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Interesting Links
-I read John Mauldin regularly and his group holds an annual conference where a bunch of well-known investors give speeches. This year’s recent fete included Kyle Bass – and here is a good summary of what he had to say about China and Japan. In particular, short the Yen.
-I thought the title of this new Kuppy article was a play on “Cash Again”. In fact, he makes the bullish case for oil – a position that we at The Binary Trade share, especially in light of recent news about the Monterrey formation in California.
-I am bullish on NYC real estate. These short pieces (here and here) from The Real Deal over the weekend outline some of the reasons why.
-I thought the title of this new Kuppy article was a play on “Cash Again”. In fact, he makes the bullish case for oil – a position that we at The Binary Trade share, especially in light of recent news about the Monterrey formation in California.
-I am bullish on NYC real estate. These short pieces (here and here) from The Real Deal over the weekend outline some of the reasons why.
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