I finished Where China Meets India by Thant Myint-u. Although about Burma, a country that has definitely piqued my interest lately, it was not the standard fare, as it didn't have an investment focus. Instead, it was part history lesson on Burma and the surrounding countries, as well as a log of the author's travels through the area. A few notes:
-The writer is western educated, but the product of Burmese parents. So, while he had been to the region before, it was years earlier, and he was able to identify the rapid transformation underway. He explored Burma, but also the regions in China (to the east) and India (to the west) that border it. The takeaway seemed to be that the distance between all these people is shrinking, and Burma is going to become a crossroads area for the large powers that surround it.
-A large factor driving everything is the resources in the ground, with estimates of hundreds of billions of dollars in natural gas, oil and other commodities in Burma. Clearly that is a compelling motivation for countries to gain access and to invest in infrastructure to extract it.
-For the Chinese, gaining a foothold in Burma is also about economic security and trade routes. They would like to establish a port that will allow them to receive imports from the west. Currently, the main thoroughfare is the Strait of Malacca, which is 1.7 miles wide at its narrowest point, and could be disrupted by a strong naval force.
-The Chinese, as compared to the Indians, already have a much more pronounced presence in Burma's largest cities. And certainly moreso than western countries that still have sanctions in place, preventing their companies from setting up shop. Recent news has suggested that the west is rapidly approaching the point where such sanctions will be lifted.
In certain ways, it is still like the wild wild west in this part of the world. There are separatist groups and sectarian violence still remains. But, the sense is that expansion is coming. I hope to get involved when the time is right.
