As mentioned, I spent the week away investigating a sunbelt city for potential investment opportunities. From that standpoint, I think this city, which is cyclical, is closer to the expensive end of the cycle than the point where a real timing play exists. However, from a longer term perspective, even at these prices, if you have patience, you'll probably do well by focusing on a certain subset of areas within the MSA.
My other takeaway kind of follows from the Ehrenhalt book. To me, in order to really be a city, you need to have some semblance of areas where pedestrians can walk around. Without it, you're really just talking about a more urban suburban area, and the term "city" is being misused. At least as a New Yorker, that's how I feel.
Finally, came across this interesting tidbit from the Capital & Crisis newsletter by Chris Mayer: "In my experiences from Mongolia to Colombia, the best opportunities in these situations often come not from mining, but from owning real estate first of all, and also simple consumer businesses and the stock exchange (if you can)."
