As with most things, I am not talking ex cathedra, but the spidey senses are starting to tingle.
I read a lot of contrarian voices, so it often leads to hearing from people who live in the land of conspiracy theories everywhere. And even if I agree with some of their general investment ideas, I still find myself rolling my eyes at the other stuff. Like the idea that the U.S. is going to implode and there will be revolutions in the streets. It seems far-fetched.
However, more and more, you hear about episodes that speak to a growing disillusionment amongst the masses and a tendency to resort to violence. The shooting outside the Empire State Building today feels like the case in point. Obviously, the facts are still developing, but it sounds like you have a guy who got laid off (and there are a lot of people out there experiencing the same thing) who felt desperate and angry enough, that the appropriate response to him was to shoot someone in the middle of a Manhattan street.
And it doesn’t end there. This political cycle has been the most contentious of my lifetime, and I feel that it’s just a manifestation of how divided people are right now. You hear more and more about episodes of domestic terrorism (the shooting at the Sikh temple in Wisconsin, the shooting at the Family Research Council office in Washington, to name a couple). You see riots in the street that pop up across Europe at various points during the financial crisis. You have occupy movements on the one hand and tea parties on the other. And everyone seems so married to their particular point of view, that the idea of compromise or common ground is simply impossible.
Which gets me back to my own thinking on the subject. I am hopeful that when push comes to shove, reason and good sense will prevail. On the other hand, I fancy myself an investor. And I know that any investment thesis where the justification for taking part relies in some meaningful measure on hope…well, it’s usually a losing proposition.
