Sunday, May 19, 2013

Repeat or Rhyme?

What to do?  You're long gold, but the price just keeps going down.  Personally, while tough, I have tried to remember two things.  First, that the fundamental story remains in tact.  That matters a lot, despite what gyrations come in the near term because of momo monkeys and the HFT crowd.  The second bit relates to history.  Back in the bull market of the '70s, gold experienced a 50% correction (yes, you read that correctly) between 1974 and 1976.

Speaking of which, I came across a very interesting chart this weekend (h/t Jesse's Cafe Americain) in which the recent price action in gold was overlayed with the end of that cyclical bear in 1976.



Paul Tudor Jones, the very successful investor/trader of the past 30 years, traded the market in 1987 brilliantly, as he was able to identify chart similarities then with the market from a particular year in the 1930s (maybe 1937?).  And, as the saying goes, history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it sure does rhyme.  Perhaps we have our own roadmap as well now.

Broken Money

The subtitle is Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better , and the author is Lyn Alden (2023). I feel like I hav...