George Friedman at Stratfor has a good read today about Putin and whether the cracks are starting to show in his reign. As we discussed some time ago in the context of Syria, much of what drives his aggressive foreign policy is a patchwork to distract from a weak economy and to mask insecurities by projecting a sense of power abroad. And so with the way events have played out in Ukraine recently, Putin’s main tool has not necessarily delivered the desired results – he does not look as “heroic” as he did during the Syria episode, and his economy continues to get worse. I think this excerpt puts it best:
“Ultimately, politicians who miscalculate and mismanage tend not to survive. Putin miscalculated in Ukraine, failing to anticipate the fall of an ally, failing to respond effectively and then stumbling badly in trying to recoup. His management of the economy has not been exemplary of late either, to say the least. He has colleagues who believe they could do a better job, and now there are important people in Europe who would be glad to see him go. He must reverse this tide rapidly, or he may be replaced.”
Another interesting point comes out of an earlier article at Stratfor (referenced within the body of the Friedman piece) – namely, that Russia’s geography likely makes the evolution of a Western-style system unlikely:
“Over the long term, the centralized system is highly inefficient, as it does not take the basic economic drivers of supply and demand into account -- to say nothing of how it crushes the common worker. But for a country as geographically massive as Russia, it was (and remains) questionable whether Western finance-driven development is even feasible, due to the lack of cheap transit options and the massive distances involved. Development driven by the crushing of the labor pool was probably the best Russia could hope for, and the same holds true today.”
Anyway, all interesting stuff.
