Because someone on the internet is wrong again, in particular on my facebook feed, I will post. This time it relates to an endorsement of Hillary’s position the other night that Russia is not interested in fighting ISIL when it acts in Syria, but merely in securing its last and final outpost in the Middle East, thereby threatening a direct confrontation with the United States.
Nein nein nein.
For Russia, it is about creating positive optics at home for its national audience as its economy struggles (Putin gets higher approval ratings when the motherland behaves like a strong military power abroad), and finding a lever in the far more important negotiation with the West over Ukraine (as the outcome of that issue is of existential importance to Russia). ISIL is a threat to Russia, especially as its reach spreads to the Caucasus – the Russians definitely do not like jihadists on their door step. But, Ukraine is more important than even that.
So, while it seems that they are creating the real possibility of direct confrontation with the United States – something that rarely happened even during the Cold War – remember it is only happening in a venue where neither party faces a true threat to its continued existence. In other words, no one is going nuclear over Syria. And therefore both parties can get disentangled from this situation with relative ease.
