Friday, February 20, 2015
The Fight
Or at least this generation's version of it, on May 2. I think Mayweather wins. Isn't he just a better version of Juan Manuel Marquez, the guy who always gives Pacquiao problems and knocked him out the last time they fought?
Sunday, January 25, 2015
From the Pile
Some books that I’ve read recently…
Revolutionary Iran – The subtitle is A History of the Islamic Republic and the author is Michael Axworthy (2013). A pretty heavy subject but really interesting. It generally supports the view I’ve always held, that the orientation of the U.S., Israel and Iran as adversaries runs contrary to the status quo of history. And that eventually the antagonisms between them will resolve to a more comfortable equilibrium. Beyond that, much as Islam has been misused in other settings, the Islamic Republic has a ripe history of episodes where its leadership has compromised its religion in order to maintain power and control. Either way, this book serves as a great one volume serving of Iran’s modern history
Just Mercy – The subtitle is A Story of Justice and Redemption and the author is Bryan Stevenson (2014). Mr. Stevenson is a preeminent lawyer in the field of civil rights, specifically with respect to representing the indigent and those on death row across the country. Having seen him speak before, the book well captures his tremendous gifts as an orator and teacher. And every time I see him speak or read his work, I am reminded of why I have always held reservations about capital punishment and a general empathy for the poor and disenfranchised.
Revolutionary Iran – The subtitle is A History of the Islamic Republic and the author is Michael Axworthy (2013). A pretty heavy subject but really interesting. It generally supports the view I’ve always held, that the orientation of the U.S., Israel and Iran as adversaries runs contrary to the status quo of history. And that eventually the antagonisms between them will resolve to a more comfortable equilibrium. Beyond that, much as Islam has been misused in other settings, the Islamic Republic has a ripe history of episodes where its leadership has compromised its religion in order to maintain power and control. Either way, this book serves as a great one volume serving of Iran’s modern history
Just Mercy – The subtitle is A Story of Justice and Redemption and the author is Bryan Stevenson (2014). Mr. Stevenson is a preeminent lawyer in the field of civil rights, specifically with respect to representing the indigent and those on death row across the country. Having seen him speak before, the book well captures his tremendous gifts as an orator and teacher. And every time I see him speak or read his work, I am reminded of why I have always held reservations about capital punishment and a general empathy for the poor and disenfranchised.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
The Colder War
The subtitle is How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America’s Grasp and the author is Marin Katusa (2014).
From the energy analyst at Casey Research, this book looks at the history of the petrodollar system and how that era seems to be coming to an end. Primarily the focus is on Putin and Russia, and how they have taken a more assertive approach relative to the United States, as well as major steps to control large swaths of important natural resources (namely, oil, gas and uranium). As they have done that, and as countries around the world figure out how to conduct trade in currencies other than the U.S. Dollar (for a whole host of reasons), the U.S. is setting up for a big fall. Basically, if you read anything from the Casey chain of publications, you have heard versions of this song and dance before. Katusa is less bombastic than the other writers in that circle, and this book tries to be more balanced, but in the end it sounds fairly consistent with ground that has been treaded before.
From the energy analyst at Casey Research, this book looks at the history of the petrodollar system and how that era seems to be coming to an end. Primarily the focus is on Putin and Russia, and how they have taken a more assertive approach relative to the United States, as well as major steps to control large swaths of important natural resources (namely, oil, gas and uranium). As they have done that, and as countries around the world figure out how to conduct trade in currencies other than the U.S. Dollar (for a whole host of reasons), the U.S. is setting up for a big fall. Basically, if you read anything from the Casey chain of publications, you have heard versions of this song and dance before. Katusa is less bombastic than the other writers in that circle, and this book tries to be more balanced, but in the end it sounds fairly consistent with ground that has been treaded before.
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
A New Year
Better late than never to welcome everyone to 2015. I have been hard at work on a new project that I hope will take off this year. It has left me with little time to offer my usual commentary on the inane.
I did finish Skyscraper Dreams by Tom Shachtman (1991), the subtitle of which is The Great Real Estate Dynasties of New York. A good read for anyone interested in that industry in that city. And it arguably doubles as a bit of Jewish history as well. Published over twenty years ago, it concludes as the country is in recession and there is a bit of uncertainty about what will be coming next. Except to say, the dynasties understood that if they had patience and staying power, they were in an asset in a location where losses would eventually be recovered and generational wealth could continue to grow.
I did finish Skyscraper Dreams by Tom Shachtman (1991), the subtitle of which is The Great Real Estate Dynasties of New York. A good read for anyone interested in that industry in that city. And it arguably doubles as a bit of Jewish history as well. Published over twenty years ago, it concludes as the country is in recession and there is a bit of uncertainty about what will be coming next. Except to say, the dynasties understood that if they had patience and staying power, they were in an asset in a location where losses would eventually be recovered and generational wealth could continue to grow.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Friday, October 17, 2014
Quote of the Day
"When you have exhausted all possibilities, remember this -- you haven't."
-Thomas Edison
-Thomas Edison
Friday, September 5, 2014
A Case for China?
Michael Pettis had an interesting post this week about why there are changes going on in China for the better. I bring it up because I see a lot of people who are “waking up” to the notion that China has big problems in store. In fact, that fate has yet to be determined, or so Pettis’ argument goes.
To remind everyone, there has been huge over-investment and misallocations of capital in China that can be traced back to three things: (1) financial repression; (2) an undervalued currency; and (3) weak wage growth relative to worker productivity. In each instance, Pettis makes the case that changes have taken place to begin dealing with these items, even if more work still needs to be done.
With respect to too-low interest rates and working to benefit exporters and borrowers over consumers and lenders, what was once a 10+% spread between nominal GDP growth rates and lending rates is now more like 1.5% or less. As such, it becomes much harder to justify borrowing and investing in anything that moves to capture a much smaller spread.
On the topic of an undervalued currency, the Yuan has appreciated by roughly 40% against the dollar within the last decade. The problem has dissipated.
And, finally, as it relates to wage growth, they’ve actually had some. While at the same time there have been real questions about just how much productivity growth there really was. So, maybe that problem is less pronounced than it once was.
None of this is meant to suggest that there is smooth sailing ahead. There is a lot of bad debt to work through and vested interests who remain committed to the status quo. Nevertheless, the “hard landing” and “social unrest” outcomes are not a foregone conclusion. Still, we need to keep a watchful eye for continued reform and meaningful change.
To remind everyone, there has been huge over-investment and misallocations of capital in China that can be traced back to three things: (1) financial repression; (2) an undervalued currency; and (3) weak wage growth relative to worker productivity. In each instance, Pettis makes the case that changes have taken place to begin dealing with these items, even if more work still needs to be done.
With respect to too-low interest rates and working to benefit exporters and borrowers over consumers and lenders, what was once a 10+% spread between nominal GDP growth rates and lending rates is now more like 1.5% or less. As such, it becomes much harder to justify borrowing and investing in anything that moves to capture a much smaller spread.
On the topic of an undervalued currency, the Yuan has appreciated by roughly 40% against the dollar within the last decade. The problem has dissipated.
And, finally, as it relates to wage growth, they’ve actually had some. While at the same time there have been real questions about just how much productivity growth there really was. So, maybe that problem is less pronounced than it once was.
None of this is meant to suggest that there is smooth sailing ahead. There is a lot of bad debt to work through and vested interests who remain committed to the status quo. Nevertheless, the “hard landing” and “social unrest” outcomes are not a foregone conclusion. Still, we need to keep a watchful eye for continued reform and meaningful change.
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