I'm someone who likes to have a strategy, so I thought it might be constructive to lay out the investment themes and ideas that I believe in. Some are old stand-bys, and some I have yet to take a position.
1) Long gold. No surprises here. We live in a world of competitive currency devaluation -- the only plan out there is to print funny money and create inflation. I have had this position for a while with some nice gains, but see no reason to sell anytime soon.
2) Short sovereign debt. This idea requires some good timing, since different countries are going to face their sovereign debt crises at different times (with the US closer to the back of the line than the front). Therefore, in trying to identify a target, I think the spotlight will move to JGBs sooner than people think. I totally buy into the Kyle Bass thesis, but doubt that some bank is going to sell me $5Bn in exposure for a basis point (not that I'm working with that kind of balance sheet anyway). A suggestion I've seen on how to play it is to buy gold in Yen terms. Because in a world of printing presses, Central Banks can keep rates low while they start monetizing debt, but they can't stop their currencies from losing all purchasing power simultaneously.
3) Mongolia. You can read about the thesis here and here. In a sentence: lots of resources in the ground, lots of money that will be invested in the country to try and extract it, and a government that has been trying to stay out of the way.
4) The "Levi's" thesis. With a hat tip to my father, he always likes to remind me that the guys who made the most money during the gold rush were the folks who made the jeans. In today's terms, I'm looking at picks and shovels.
In any event, that's where my head is.
