The season starts tomorrow, so let's get to it.
The Knicks are going to win the title this year (with requisite disclaimers and caveats to follow). There are really 7 or 8 contenders, but New York is definitely in that mix (at long last). And for reasons that I will discuss, I think they are the ones that emerge in the end.
To be clear, they will not have the best regular season record, much less the best record in the Eastern Conference -- I think that Chicago and Miami (in some order) will take those mantles. Nevertheless, by the time the playoffs roll around, such details won't matter.
What are the things to consider?
1) Baron Davis -- To my thinking, he is the ultimate "X" factor in the league this year. If he recovers from his back injury (a mysterious one at that), the Knicks got an absolute steal. (In a rare instance of subscribing to the conspiracy theory, I actually think his agent played up how long he would be out in order to steer him to the Mecca.) His history is interesting, as he truly does play to his surroundings. When the team around him is mediocre to bad, and the arena is lifeless, he just goes through the motions. When he's with a contender, and the fans are a palpable sixth man, he can be unstoppable. In New York, with this team, at MSG, I think we get good Baron; actually, I think we get really good Baron. And therein lies the solution at point guard for this team.
2) Injuries -- This season is a 66 game sprint. Hardly any rest or practice, so whoever rolls into the playoffs the healthiest will have a decided advantage. And here's where the D'Antoni factor kind of scares me. The other night after the Nets game, he said it was likely he would use a 10 or 11 man rotation. Gosh, I hope so. Because, given that he's in the last year of his contract, I am terrified that he will run Amar'e into the ground to save his own hide. I will take him at his word for now.
3) Defense -- Tyson Chandler is a difference maker. Not just that he is a defensive presence in his own right, but it's clear already that he is truly a leader in the locker room, and will hold everyone else accountable if they don't do their part...including Carmelo and Amar'e.
4) Shooting Guard -- After the first preseason game, I might have gotten a little bit ahead of myself with Iman Shumpert. He clearly has all the skills and the head to be a great player. But, after seeing his shot selection in the second game, it might take a little more time than I originally thought for him to find his groove. Nevertheless, I think the combo of Shumpert and Fields will be good enough. Landry seems ready to do all the things that need to be done when you're playing on the same court as Melo and Stat. I also think that the presence of Shumpert will drive him to be a better player. By the time the playoffs roll around, I expect one of them will have firmly established himself as a legit starting 2-guard in this league.
5) Carmelo Anthony -- I think he is going to be an absolute monster this year. Little known fact: he started out as a point guard, but when he grew to 6'8", he moved to forward. Nevertheless, the point is that he has point guard skills, and given that he will start the season as a point forward, I think he will be able to tear up opponents. He could very easily win the scoring title and have high single-digit rebound and assist averages. But, more than all of that, I think he has a chip on his shoulder when it comes to Lebron. He is one of the few players who simply shows no fear against him, and expects to get the better of the match-up every time they play. That's what I want in my best player.
6) Mid-Season Addition -- The team still has a $2.5MM exception, and I have a sneaking suspicion it will get used on one of the players stuck in China until February or March. Like Kenyon Martin.
As it relates to how the Knicks match up with the other top teams in the East, in a word: well. Particularly with the crew from South Beach. Melo always rises to the occasion against Lebron, and I think Amar'e is pissed as hell that anyone ever thought Chris Bosh was a better get than him last summer. Add in Tyson Chandler, who was a defensive menace against the Heat in the Finals, and things look pretty good. And that doesn't even mention that the Heat still have glaring holes at point guard and center (neither of which Eddy Curry is going to solve).
Anyway, to wrap this all up, let me digress for a moment. One blog that I really like a lot is The Altucher Confidential, written by James Altucher. His background is that of a investor, but that's hardly the point of his posts. Recently, he was talking about lessons he learned from playing poker, and got into something called the "conspiracy theory" -- essentially, it is the analysis of how many things have to happen in order for your desired outcome to occur (clearly a relevant concept for poker or chess). And to quote his example in extending the principle to real life, if you're in love with a married woman, who has three kids and lives 5,000 miles away, then three things have to conspire simultaneously in order for it to work out with her. A tall order. Well, in the context of prognosticating about eventual NBA champions, there could be some relevance also. Clearly, why I think the Knicks will win is predicated on certain contingencies and "if"s playing out in a certain way. But, in the context of sports, that's what usually ends up happening most seasons for at least one team...the eventual winner. And, I truly believe that this year is that year for New York.
Finally, if there is one area where I have ever shown the proficiency and qualities of an investor that I've been harping on lately, it is with the NBA. I love the Knicks, but I have never been unrealistic about their chances. I enjoyed the run to the Finals in '99, but I also knew there wasn't a chance that they would beat the Spurs without Ewing (whose injury in and of itself was what enabled them to make it to the Finals anyway, i.e., small, up tempo ball with Camby in the middle). I knew the Mavs would beat the Heat last year because they were the deeper, more complete team. My gut is usually pretty good about these things. And this year my gut is finally telling me what I want to hear.
So, miles to go, but tomorrow it begins.
