"If you make a decision that you are going to make something work, and you commit yourself no matter what to figuring out how to do that; and you are absolutely not bothered by failure and making mistakes in the process of doing it, people can do a lot of things. And for me, this is what I wanted to do with my life...I feel like I'm doing what I'm born to do. When you have that kind of conviction, then you do whatever it takes to build value."
-Elizabeth Holmes
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
Around the World
My take on all the current “hot” spots:
-My understanding of the Ukraine situation has been informed largely by Stratfor. And to that end, the key point is that Russia needs to have buffer zones from its potential enemies in the West, and a regional sphere of influence such that its neighbors are not all united against it. Therefore, when Western NGOs helped to overthrow the previous regime in Kiev, and installed one that was sympathetic to the West, Russia was forced to take steps to re-establish its buffer. The Russians will not invade Ukraine, but at a minimum are looking to neutralize it as a base for Western powers, both in terms of joining organizations like NATO and permitting foreign troops to have a presence within its borders. As an economy that is so completely dependent on energy (which is not necessarily a good thing prospectively), Russia needs time and certainty in order to adapt and diversify – a shift in Ukraine prevents those factors from taking shape.
-Next up is Iraq. My view is that ISIS has reached its limits in terms of what it is capable of right now. First off, it is an actual army – which means it needs to have supply lines and the like in order to push ahead and take additional territory. But, it’s actually not a very big army (only 9,000 troops), so its chances of actually taking Baghdad (or any other Shia-dominated area) are slim to none. Moreover, as a Sunni group, it requires the support of the local population in order to take and hold territory. That certainly will not happen in the Shia and Kurdish regions, but it also appears that it does not really have the full support of the Sunnis either – remember, they already got kicked out of Ramadi recently. So, could Iraq potentially fracture into 3 different countries within a county? Maybe. Do I think that ISIS really has staying power? No, I do not. Oh, and by the way, add this situation to the pile of reasons why the price of oil will go up over time.
-My understanding of the Ukraine situation has been informed largely by Stratfor. And to that end, the key point is that Russia needs to have buffer zones from its potential enemies in the West, and a regional sphere of influence such that its neighbors are not all united against it. Therefore, when Western NGOs helped to overthrow the previous regime in Kiev, and installed one that was sympathetic to the West, Russia was forced to take steps to re-establish its buffer. The Russians will not invade Ukraine, but at a minimum are looking to neutralize it as a base for Western powers, both in terms of joining organizations like NATO and permitting foreign troops to have a presence within its borders. As an economy that is so completely dependent on energy (which is not necessarily a good thing prospectively), Russia needs time and certainty in order to adapt and diversify – a shift in Ukraine prevents those factors from taking shape.
-Next up is Iraq. My view is that ISIS has reached its limits in terms of what it is capable of right now. First off, it is an actual army – which means it needs to have supply lines and the like in order to push ahead and take additional territory. But, it’s actually not a very big army (only 9,000 troops), so its chances of actually taking Baghdad (or any other Shia-dominated area) are slim to none. Moreover, as a Sunni group, it requires the support of the local population in order to take and hold territory. That certainly will not happen in the Shia and Kurdish regions, but it also appears that it does not really have the full support of the Sunnis either – remember, they already got kicked out of Ramadi recently. So, could Iraq potentially fracture into 3 different countries within a county? Maybe. Do I think that ISIS really has staying power? No, I do not. Oh, and by the way, add this situation to the pile of reasons why the price of oil will go up over time.
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
On My Mind
-It’s not really a secret that I have been rooting against the Miami Heat for the past 4 seasons. But, in the aftermath of the Spurs’ dominant win this year, I have to admit that I found Lebron James to be a sympathetic figure in defeat. Maybe it was because it looked like he was out there alone in the Finals, getting little help from his teammates. Or maybe it was because he seemed to be pretty gracious in defeat – the first one over to congratulate his opponents after the final buzzer. I don’t know if the window on Miami’s title hopes has closed (they definitely need to add some bench depth), but if it is, I’ll mark it by saying that Lebron is definitely the second best player of my lifetime. And, if he wants to come to my Knicks, we would welcome him with open arms.
-When the Iraq war started in 2003, I was still wet behind the ears and not smart enough to understand the ulterior motives behind the action. I’ve grown up a bit since then and am now fairly skeptical of most everything that my government does. Which is why I knew that the adventures in Syria would only lead to bigger problems. My instinct all along was that the real U.S. ally in the region would end up being Iran. Well, today I read an article that is both terrifying and a confirmation of my priors. The West has created a tinderbox out of the Middle East and we will all have to deal with it for many years to come.
-Of course, when you see articles like this one in the Gray Lady, where the case is made that global economies are struggling because there isn’t enough war…well, then, I guess everything makes a bit more sense.
-When the Iraq war started in 2003, I was still wet behind the ears and not smart enough to understand the ulterior motives behind the action. I’ve grown up a bit since then and am now fairly skeptical of most everything that my government does. Which is why I knew that the adventures in Syria would only lead to bigger problems. My instinct all along was that the real U.S. ally in the region would end up being Iran. Well, today I read an article that is both terrifying and a confirmation of my priors. The West has created a tinderbox out of the Middle East and we will all have to deal with it for many years to come.
-Of course, when you see articles like this one in the Gray Lady, where the case is made that global economies are struggling because there isn’t enough war…well, then, I guess everything makes a bit more sense.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Quote of the Day
“I don’t know what happens to a dream deferred, and I don’t want to either.”
-Jawad Mian
-Jawad Mian
Friday, June 6, 2014
Japanization
The subtitle is What the World Can Learn from Japan's Lost Decades and the author is William Pesek (2014).
What drew me to the book is that Abenomics play an important role in the analysis. And in focusing on that topic, the author draws out the general factors that keep Japan stuck in place. They are:
-a continued reliance on fiscal and monetary largesse to paper over bad debts that can date back to the 1980s, rather than allowing creative destruction to work its magic
-a sexism that is baked into the culture and therefore eliminates the creativity and productivity that comes with greater inclusion
-a debt/GDP ratio that is the largest in the developed world and whose management subsumes all other policy considerations
-an insularity and groupthink inherent to the society that values the status quo over progress, exemplified by the government's handling of the Fukushima disaster (in which it protected the vested interests and lacked transparency in communicating the dangers that existed)
-a parochial thinking in Japanese culture that prevents it from engaging the rest of the world and thereby using that engagement to spur growth
-an amateur foreign and domestic policy approach that antagonizes its neighbors and its people, with Abe's visit to the Yakusuni shrine and the secrecy bill as the best recent examples (all because the LDP is trying to cater to the nation's political right wing)
Japan is a country with bad demographics and a stunningly massive debt load. The tricks of Abenomics (as they relate to fiscal and monetary stimulus) only represent a bigger and more marketed version of what has been going on for over 20 years already. We know they don't work and what's missing is the "third arrow" - structural reform that addresses the list of problems above. Without it, the eventual pain at the end is just that much greater.
What drew me to the book is that Abenomics play an important role in the analysis. And in focusing on that topic, the author draws out the general factors that keep Japan stuck in place. They are:
-a continued reliance on fiscal and monetary largesse to paper over bad debts that can date back to the 1980s, rather than allowing creative destruction to work its magic
-a sexism that is baked into the culture and therefore eliminates the creativity and productivity that comes with greater inclusion
-a debt/GDP ratio that is the largest in the developed world and whose management subsumes all other policy considerations
-an insularity and groupthink inherent to the society that values the status quo over progress, exemplified by the government's handling of the Fukushima disaster (in which it protected the vested interests and lacked transparency in communicating the dangers that existed)
-a parochial thinking in Japanese culture that prevents it from engaging the rest of the world and thereby using that engagement to spur growth
-an amateur foreign and domestic policy approach that antagonizes its neighbors and its people, with Abe's visit to the Yakusuni shrine and the secrecy bill as the best recent examples (all because the LDP is trying to cater to the nation's political right wing)
Japan is a country with bad demographics and a stunningly massive debt load. The tricks of Abenomics (as they relate to fiscal and monetary stimulus) only represent a bigger and more marketed version of what has been going on for over 20 years already. We know they don't work and what's missing is the "third arrow" - structural reform that addresses the list of problems above. Without it, the eventual pain at the end is just that much greater.
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