My take on all the current “hot” spots:
-My understanding of the Ukraine situation has been informed largely by Stratfor. And to that end, the key point is that Russia needs to have buffer zones from its potential enemies in the West, and a regional sphere of influence such that its neighbors are not all united against it. Therefore, when Western NGOs helped to overthrow the previous regime in Kiev, and installed one that was sympathetic to the West, Russia was forced to take steps to re-establish its buffer. The Russians will not invade Ukraine, but at a minimum are looking to neutralize it as a base for Western powers, both in terms of joining organizations like NATO and permitting foreign troops to have a presence within its borders. As an economy that is so completely dependent on energy (which is not necessarily a good thing prospectively), Russia needs time and certainty in order to adapt and diversify – a shift in Ukraine prevents those factors from taking shape.
-Next up is Iraq. My view is that ISIS has reached its limits in terms of what it is capable of right now. First off, it is an actual army – which means it needs to have supply lines and the like in order to push ahead and take additional territory. But, it’s actually not a very big army (only 9,000 troops), so its chances of actually taking Baghdad (or any other Shia-dominated area) are slim to none. Moreover, as a Sunni group, it requires the support of the local population in order to take and hold territory. That certainly will not happen in the Shia and Kurdish regions, but it also appears that it does not really have the full support of the Sunnis either – remember, they already got kicked out of Ramadi recently. So, could Iraq potentially fracture into 3 different countries within a county? Maybe. Do I think that ISIS really has staying power? No, I do not. Oh, and by the way, add this situation to the pile of reasons why the price of oil will go up over time.
