Failure?

An interesting piece today from Robert Kaplan at Stratfor. He tries to assess whether the Obama administration has been a failure in its foreign policy. Kaplan’s basic position is that the media often misses the real objective, in prioritizing action over the greater necessities of realism and caution, and therefore has spun a story that misses a lot of the relevant parts. Nevertheless, the jury is still out.

But, to elaborate a bit:

-Obama continues to deploy the navy and air force to all corners of the globe

-He actively uses drones in global hot spots (versus putting U.S. soldiers in harm’s way) and has killed more Al Qaeda leaders than Bush 2

-While not sending forces to Ukraine, Ukrainian troops have suddenly become much more disciplined and efficient in recent months, suggesting the presence of U.S. military advisors in the country

-The Syria episode did not put him in the most favorable light, but my view continues to be that not entering the fray and more forcefully trying to depose Assad was the right move –a view that has only been strengthened with realizations that what would have replaced Assad resembles the current ISIS threat in Iraq

-Where the U.S. was more involved, in Libya, it is now a chaotic no-man’s land where terrorists can roam free (with spillover effects in Mali)

-Given the other options on the table, trying to negotiate with Iran is also the right play

Still, to Kaplan’s thinking, the missing element is that Obama and Kerry, in trying to emulate Kissinger and James Baker before them, should have used greater brinksmanship and left their adversaries to wonder what the U.S. might do – this approach stands in contrast to the pre-announcement of no U.S. troops in Ukraine and not pressuring Iran in other ways while working towards an agreement. That’s the difference and why this administration engenders less respect, leaving itself open to criticism.

My personal views are a bit less imperialistic than Mr. Kaplan’s, but I still think he makes an interesting argument for why the narrative of Obama’s “inaction” is very misleading.

On Q2 GDP

“Of this 4% increase, the change in real private inventories added 1.66%. In other words GDP based on goods and services actually sold was only 2.34%. That changes in unsold goods, which is what inventories represent, should be part of final consumption is a dubious proposition…”

-Alasdair Macleod

Still Setting

For those wondering how Japan's doing, here's a pretty decent summary.

Understanding Russia

George Friedman at Stratfor has a good read today about Putin and whether the cracks are starting to show in his reign. As we discussed some time ago in the context of Syria, much of what drives his aggressive foreign policy is a patchwork to distract from a weak economy and to mask insecurities by projecting a sense of power abroad. And so with the way events have played out in Ukraine recently, Putin’s main tool has not necessarily delivered the desired results – he does not look as “heroic” as he did during the Syria episode, and his economy continues to get worse. I think this excerpt puts it best:

“Ultimately, politicians who miscalculate and mismanage tend not to survive. Putin miscalculated in Ukraine, failing to anticipate the fall of an ally, failing to respond effectively and then stumbling badly in trying to recoup. His management of the economy has not been exemplary of late either, to say the least. He has colleagues who believe they could do a better job, and now there are important people in Europe who would be glad to see him go. He must reverse this tide rapidly, or he may be replaced.”

Another interesting point comes out of an earlier article at Stratfor (referenced within the body of the Friedman piece) – namely, that Russia’s geography likely makes the evolution of a Western-style system unlikely:

“Over the long term, the centralized system is highly inefficient, as it does not take the basic economic drivers of supply and demand into account -- to say nothing of how it crushes the common worker. But for a country as geographically massive as Russia, it was (and remains) questionable whether Western finance-driven development is even feasible, due to the lack of cheap transit options and the massive distances involved. Development driven by the crushing of the labor pool was probably the best Russia could hope for, and the same holds true today.”

Anyway, all interesting stuff.

Rigged

The book Flash Boys by Michael Lewis sits on my ever-growing pile of future reads.  In the mean time, I thought this article was an interesting exposition of how the HFT/dark pool crowd screws over investors, both big and small.

Reimagining Midtown

I thought this article was a pretty cool look at the future skyline of midtown Manhattan.

Marking Time

With the U.S. knocked out yesterday, it felt like the right time to post something. After all, this blog started four years ago while I was watching the World Cup in South Africa. And quite a four years it has been.

My family has grown and for that I am grateful. I took on a new job that came up lacking, and eventually figured out that “the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now”. The Knicks are still the Knicks. I have endured several stress injuries in my leg, but still intend to have a date with the NYC Half. I saw gold go up, and then go down, and maybe start to go up again. The can has been kicked many times over. I read a few books and hopefully got a little smarter. I figured out what I am passionate about. I am still incredibly stubborn, and really watch out if you don’t feed me. The day to day worries pass, and I know with greater experience that the things I regret mostly come from that which I didn’t do.

Hopefully what comes before operates as the building blocks for what comes later.