To all regular and accidental visitors, may you have a happy and healthy new year. A few predictions for 2013:
-Japan will start to combust
-The US will not get its house in order; unemployment will hold around current levels and the Fed will implement additional policy measures that take $1 trillion per year even higher
-The bull market in gold will continue
-The best leveraged trade will be shorting the Yen
Enjoy the ride.
Monday, December 31, 2012
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Friday, December 21, 2012
For Later
I have moments where I think about my life today as compared to the dreams that I had when I was growing up. Everyone does it, I think. And often the daydreams can contrast sharply with the reality.
I work in the real estate investment business. But if you had asked me 20 years ago what I wanted, I can assure you that real estate would not have been the answer. I had aspirations of living in Hollywood – first it was movies, later it was music. And when I decided to go to law school and become a lawyer, it was with the idea that such profession could help me to get there. And in the few years that I did practice, I was arguably on the fringe of the periphery, but never close enough that it got me juiced to wake up in the morning and go to work. So, I zigged instead of zagged, changing the trajectory of my professional life and opting for something else that piqued my interest.
Still, there are days (and sometimes entire weeks) where I think about that other life. It’s not always clear what triggers these mental exercises, but they do show up unannounced from time to time. Lately has been one of those periods. I offer no explanation for the timing. But where it used to bring me down a bit, it has not become overwhelming in the same way anymore. Maybe I am better able to take solace in knowing that I have made a career for myself that is still interesting and sometimes challenging. And, if my checklist of goals comes to fruition in 2013, in the manner that I think it might, a lot of what the childhood fantasies represented are still on the table.
More than anything, I want a career where I hold some measure of control over my fate, rather than just being a supporting character in someone else’s show – to have a stake in the outcome, a piece of the pie, and to feel invigorated by honoring the entrepreneurial spirit. I’ve done it somewhat already, but there is still work to do. I think there are new opportunities waiting, I just need to pursue them and not give up. As with anyone else who has a dream and a goal.
Maybe the point of this post was to remind myself of those things, to capture the sentiment for moments later when I feel a little less certain. We’ll see what comes to pass in the next calendar year.
I work in the real estate investment business. But if you had asked me 20 years ago what I wanted, I can assure you that real estate would not have been the answer. I had aspirations of living in Hollywood – first it was movies, later it was music. And when I decided to go to law school and become a lawyer, it was with the idea that such profession could help me to get there. And in the few years that I did practice, I was arguably on the fringe of the periphery, but never close enough that it got me juiced to wake up in the morning and go to work. So, I zigged instead of zagged, changing the trajectory of my professional life and opting for something else that piqued my interest.
Still, there are days (and sometimes entire weeks) where I think about that other life. It’s not always clear what triggers these mental exercises, but they do show up unannounced from time to time. Lately has been one of those periods. I offer no explanation for the timing. But where it used to bring me down a bit, it has not become overwhelming in the same way anymore. Maybe I am better able to take solace in knowing that I have made a career for myself that is still interesting and sometimes challenging. And, if my checklist of goals comes to fruition in 2013, in the manner that I think it might, a lot of what the childhood fantasies represented are still on the table.
More than anything, I want a career where I hold some measure of control over my fate, rather than just being a supporting character in someone else’s show – to have a stake in the outcome, a piece of the pie, and to feel invigorated by honoring the entrepreneurial spirit. I’ve done it somewhat already, but there is still work to do. I think there are new opportunities waiting, I just need to pursue them and not give up. As with anyone else who has a dream and a goal.
Maybe the point of this post was to remind myself of those things, to capture the sentiment for moments later when I feel a little less certain. We’ll see what comes to pass in the next calendar year.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Mental Notes
With the LDP winning in Japan over the weekend, the next stage in Japan blowing up is likely to begin. The Yen had a big move in the past month and now sits right at the important 84 level, with momentum suggesting that the path of least resistance is higher. But, with a meaningful jump from 78 already in the books, I wouldn’t be shocked if there is a bit of a rest in the price action. My FXY put options still have a month to go, but I’m not banking on making any money there – it was a small speculation to keep me focused.
The other interesting piece, albeit not watershed, has been the rise in JGB yields over the past week – from 70 bps to 77 bps on the 10-year. Still near all-time low levels, but a big move relative to what we’re used to. I’m not rushing to do anything there.
A number of guys that I follow think that Mongolia has bottomed, following a rash of negative news in recent quarters around government backtracking on the Oyu Tolgoi agreement. I hold the same positions that I did before, just at lower price levels, with no plans to tweak exposure.
I like gold and think it will move higher in the first quarter of 2013. While the gold stocks will eventually catch up, the psychology around them continues to be negative, so I only want to play that move through the metal itself. I still hold some LEAP positions for a couple of the miners that expire in January 2014 – and they all doubled or tripled, only to take a round trip back down in the past couple of months. My exposure there also will not change.
The other interesting piece, albeit not watershed, has been the rise in JGB yields over the past week – from 70 bps to 77 bps on the 10-year. Still near all-time low levels, but a big move relative to what we’re used to. I’m not rushing to do anything there.
A number of guys that I follow think that Mongolia has bottomed, following a rash of negative news in recent quarters around government backtracking on the Oyu Tolgoi agreement. I hold the same positions that I did before, just at lower price levels, with no plans to tweak exposure.
I like gold and think it will move higher in the first quarter of 2013. While the gold stocks will eventually catch up, the psychology around them continues to be negative, so I only want to play that move through the metal itself. I still hold some LEAP positions for a couple of the miners that expire in January 2014 – and they all doubled or tripled, only to take a round trip back down in the past couple of months. My exposure there also will not change.
Quote of the Day
Courtesy of the always entertaining Doug Casey:
"Timing is always the hard part - confusing what's inevitable with what's imminent..."
"Timing is always the hard part - confusing what's inevitable with what's imminent..."
Good Insight
I thought this line from Mario Rizzo was well-written:
“Consider that the contemporary federal government – executive and legislature – exists for the purpose of giving favors to various groups in exchange for electoral support.”
Regardless of party, this statement will always hold true. So, which special interest are we serving today?
“Consider that the contemporary federal government – executive and legislature – exists for the purpose of giving favors to various groups in exchange for electoral support.”
Regardless of party, this statement will always hold true. So, which special interest are we serving today?
What's On My Mind - 12.19.12
-Another great video of Kyle Bass. What did he say? History is important because it gives you a larger data set. He thinks the money-printing story plays out to its logical conclusion in the next 2-3 years. As a general rule, the Rubicon is when debt becomes 15 or 20 times government revenue.
-The Yen / JGB idea is getting a lot of air time lately. And the sentiment seems to be fairly one-sided, so be careful. But, the larger trend is now in motion.
-I still think gold is going to make a big move going into the spring. And theMay March 2013 GLD options that I mentioned recently have only gotten cheaper, by more than half. I am very tempted.
-The Yen / JGB idea is getting a lot of air time lately. And the sentiment seems to be fairly one-sided, so be careful. But, the larger trend is now in motion.
-I still think gold is going to make a big move going into the spring. And the
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