The last time I returned to running after an injury, I trumpeted it with a much more exuberant post header. I am trying to be a bit more careful this time, in all respects.
As the title might suggest, after exactly 100 days of healing, I tried running again for the first time yesterday. A very modest and short run, under the supervision of a physical therapist, but it was a start. Overall, in handling the sequel to my stress injury, I think I was more proactive in treatment and made efforts to be more careful about how much exertion I experienced on a daily basis. I also did a better job of trying to do other things that might remain a part of my routine, such as swimming, where I actually took some lessons since technique is so important.
Recently, I also read the book Run Less, Run Faster by Bill Pierce, Scott Murr and Ray Moss (2007, 2012). Through their FIRST program, the authors are big proponents of the 3Plus2 system, an exercise routine in which there are 3 key runs each week plus 2 other days of cross-training. The runs are comprised of one speed interval day, a tempo day, and a long run. The suggested methods of cross-training, which are days in which the athlete gets some rest from the movements and rigors of running, include swimming, cycling, deepwater running and rowing. The whole idea is that variety and avoiding too much running will help to keep a runner injury-free and from getting overworked and exhausted. And the results, apparently, are race times that continue to improve for those who follow it. The book includes a whole bunch of suggested training programs, for both the running and cross-training segments. I look forward to seeing what it can do for me.
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
To embellish the point...
On the heels of the post this morning, in which it was suggested that margin debt is being used to finance a buy-to-rent and house flipping strategy by retail investors, today we catch wind that some of the big players that had been piling in to buy single family homes for rental are now backing off. To quote Bruce Rose, CEO of the hedge fund Carrington:
“We just don’t see the returns there that are adequate to incentivize us to continue to invest…There’s a lot of — bluntly — stupid money that jumped into the trade without any infrastructure, without any real capabilities and a kind of build-it-as-you-go mentality that we think is somewhat irresponsible.”
“We just don’t see the returns there that are adequate to incentivize us to continue to invest…There’s a lot of — bluntly — stupid money that jumped into the trade without any infrastructure, without any real capabilities and a kind of build-it-as-you-go mentality that we think is somewhat irresponsible.”
Ecclesiastes Revisited
I came across this article courtesy of the Ed Steers’ daily email. It talks about how margin debt in April reached $384.4 billion in brokerage accounts, exceeding the levels of June 2007. Typically margin debt is a sign of confidence and is used as a way to increase exposure to the stock market, which by itself seems foolish to me at these levels. However, there is one person interviewed in the article who suggests that margin debt is actually being used to finance the flipping of houses.
We really have learned nothing.
We really have learned nothing.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
More signs of change
It continues to be interesting times. The S&P had a nice little rebound today after two not-so-stellar sessions. At the same time, if you look at today’s candlestick, it closed meaningfully off the intraday highs.
But more noteworthy to me is the 10-year treasury. I have provided a daily chart below that dates back to September, 2011. And what you’ll observe is that the 2.10% level, which has consistently operated as overheard resistance on yields, got blown through today. As always, we need confirmation in the next few sessions, and the trading channel started about a year ago is still in play for purposes of timing a potential reversal - but there is something to this price action, combined with the recent volatility in the JGB market, that seems to me to be significant.
But more noteworthy to me is the 10-year treasury. I have provided a daily chart below that dates back to September, 2011. And what you’ll observe is that the 2.10% level, which has consistently operated as overheard resistance on yields, got blown through today. As always, we need confirmation in the next few sessions, and the trading channel started about a year ago is still in play for purposes of timing a potential reversal - but there is something to this price action, combined with the recent volatility in the JGB market, that seems to me to be significant.
Quote of the Day
I found this excerpt to be an amusing summary of Fed policy:
“Best I can tell, the Fed may begin to “taper” or they may instead choose to increase the size of QE. Could be soon but maybe not. It’s “data dependent,” although that data may be the unemployment rate or GDP or CPI or something else. When the Fed eventually decides to “taper” – they may then decide to reverse course depending, again, on various factors that no one can clearly articulate because there’s no consensus view as to how to manage this phase of the monetary experiment.”
“Best I can tell, the Fed may begin to “taper” or they may instead choose to increase the size of QE. Could be soon but maybe not. It’s “data dependent,” although that data may be the unemployment rate or GDP or CPI or something else. When the Fed eventually decides to “taper” – they may then decide to reverse course depending, again, on various factors that no one can clearly articulate because there’s no consensus view as to how to manage this phase of the monetary experiment.”
Sunday, May 26, 2013
A Gift to My Children
A short book by Jim Rogers and the subtitle is A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing (2009). Clearly written to his two young daughters, it offers some of the important ideas that he's picked up along the way, often presented in the context of his career as an investor, Be bold, be original, be curious, and, above all else, be true to yourself.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Investing Updates
-Yesterday, I added to my gold mining positions.
-Today, I increased my short of SAN.
-Today, I increased my short of SAN.
City of Gold
The subtitle is Dubai and the Dream of Capitalism and the author is Jim Krane (2009) – the book is an examination of the city’s origins and specifically its development over the past few decades (ending with the global financial crisis).
A large measure of Dubai’s growth in the past century can be attributed to its efforts to function as a freer, less onerous and more business-friendly environment for Iranian money, even as it remains one of Iran’s largest trading partners. Despite its location, Dubai is not an oil town, holding only 4% of the reserves in the U.A.E. Therefore, it had to develop itself as a center for finance and tourism. Still, the real boom in the 2000s came in part because of 9/11 – after Arabs were largely shunned in the West, Dubai’s unique role in the region attracted much of the oil money that wanted a safe home. It was a free port; a tax-friendly financial center; with the growth of Emirates Air, a travel hub for the Middle East and a gateway city to the West; it was a place where all religions were welcomed and where expats did not need to live an ascetic life. And it has also managed to avoid terrorism despite some Western tendencies in its operations, despite maintaining business ties with Israel, and despite serving as a frequent pit stop for the U.S. Navy – probably because, officially, the U.A.E. has always maintained the company line when it comes to important Middle Eastern issues like the Palestinians. The government has chosen to avoid huge bureaucracies, to be as apolitical as possible, and to encourage experimentation.
There are of course concerns – demographics (it’s 75% men), a lack of real intellectual and artistic identity, women have been known to suffer some of the indignities associated with Middle Eastern culture, there is a small Emirati population that receives huge subsidies and relies on foreign labor that is denied the possibility of citizenship and often lives in squalor, and (as recent times revealed) a big reliance on real estate development and debt to fuel the economy and pay for things.
Nevertheless, Dubai’s emergence speaks to the virtues of letting people take risks and encouraging entrepreneurship. As the author notes: “it’s a place that mercilessly taunts the pessimist”.
A large measure of Dubai’s growth in the past century can be attributed to its efforts to function as a freer, less onerous and more business-friendly environment for Iranian money, even as it remains one of Iran’s largest trading partners. Despite its location, Dubai is not an oil town, holding only 4% of the reserves in the U.A.E. Therefore, it had to develop itself as a center for finance and tourism. Still, the real boom in the 2000s came in part because of 9/11 – after Arabs were largely shunned in the West, Dubai’s unique role in the region attracted much of the oil money that wanted a safe home. It was a free port; a tax-friendly financial center; with the growth of Emirates Air, a travel hub for the Middle East and a gateway city to the West; it was a place where all religions were welcomed and where expats did not need to live an ascetic life. And it has also managed to avoid terrorism despite some Western tendencies in its operations, despite maintaining business ties with Israel, and despite serving as a frequent pit stop for the U.S. Navy – probably because, officially, the U.A.E. has always maintained the company line when it comes to important Middle Eastern issues like the Palestinians. The government has chosen to avoid huge bureaucracies, to be as apolitical as possible, and to encourage experimentation.
There are of course concerns – demographics (it’s 75% men), a lack of real intellectual and artistic identity, women have been known to suffer some of the indignities associated with Middle Eastern culture, there is a small Emirati population that receives huge subsidies and relies on foreign labor that is denied the possibility of citizenship and often lives in squalor, and (as recent times revealed) a big reliance on real estate development and debt to fuel the economy and pay for things.
Nevertheless, Dubai’s emergence speaks to the virtues of letting people take risks and encouraging entrepreneurship. As the author notes: “it’s a place that mercilessly taunts the pessimist”.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Litmus Test (NO HEDGING ALLOWED)
You may have noticed that I don't agree with Paul Krugman's assessment of the world and what should be done. It is with great joy then that he has managed to put himself on the record lately in a way that will be hard to backtrack when events turn out differently than he suggests (versus his standard M.O.).
-First off, we have this post where he argues that there are no bubbles in sight.
-Then there's this one where he describes gold's initial rebound from the April lows as simply a "dead ingot bounce".
-Then there's this one where he explains that the Nikkei dropped 7% because there is concern that the BOJ won't stick to its guns with respect to money-printing (versus the thought that maybe money-printing is actually the problem).
I believe that Mr. Krugman will be wrong on each and all of the above. See, I didn't hedge either.
-First off, we have this post where he argues that there are no bubbles in sight.
-Then there's this one where he describes gold's initial rebound from the April lows as simply a "dead ingot bounce".
-Then there's this one where he explains that the Nikkei dropped 7% because there is concern that the BOJ won't stick to its guns with respect to money-printing (versus the thought that maybe money-printing is actually the problem).
I believe that Mr. Krugman will be wrong on each and all of the above. See, I didn't hedge either.
Turning Up the Volume
Granted, it might all just be noise. But…
As we watch growing volatility in the JGB market (and now the Nikkei). Treasuries continuing to move higher. Some sense that the gold price has found a bottom after a lot of big swings.
Well…maybe that way-off in the distant future day of reckoning is closer than we realize.
As we watch growing volatility in the JGB market (and now the Nikkei). Treasuries continuing to move higher. Some sense that the gold price has found a bottom after a lot of big swings.
Well…maybe that way-off in the distant future day of reckoning is closer than we realize.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Time to exhale?
Well, that was an interesting day. A re-test of the lows, volume dissipating as it was approached, and then very strong volume on a powerful move back up towards $1400. And in reading the reaction of various folks who pay attention to the precious metals, there is some optimism that the lows, after a grueling 21 months, have been seen. We need a bit of confirmation, but maybe, just maybe, the tide has turned.
Update: I should be a little more clear. Nothing is established at this point, and it's possible that we could drift sideways also, but today's successful re-test might indicate that the lows have been seen.
Update: I should be a little more clear. Nothing is established at this point, and it's possible that we could drift sideways also, but today's successful re-test might indicate that the lows have been seen.
More thoughts on Japan
Courtesy of John Mauldin:
“Abe’s reforms require significant economic growth. Japan has had none for two decades, and now conditions for growth are even more difficult. Growth in GDP comes from two (and only two) sources: growth in productivity and growth in (working-age) population. Japan’s population is actually shrinking, and its working-age population is falling even faster as the country rapidly ages.
Because of the demographic problems of an aging Japan, economic growth will require even greater productivity growth than normal. Where is that going to come from? Real productivity growth (as opposed to nominal growth due to inflation) is not something you can just dial up with government policies and quantitative easing. It is incremental in nature. If you want 3% GDP growth in a country whose population is shrinking by 1%, you need 4% productivity growth, give or take. That just doesn’t happen on a sustained basis in a developed country.”
“Abe’s reforms require significant economic growth. Japan has had none for two decades, and now conditions for growth are even more difficult. Growth in GDP comes from two (and only two) sources: growth in productivity and growth in (working-age) population. Japan’s population is actually shrinking, and its working-age population is falling even faster as the country rapidly ages.
Because of the demographic problems of an aging Japan, economic growth will require even greater productivity growth than normal. Where is that going to come from? Real productivity growth (as opposed to nominal growth due to inflation) is not something you can just dial up with government policies and quantitative easing. It is incremental in nature. If you want 3% GDP growth in a country whose population is shrinking by 1%, you need 4% productivity growth, give or take. That just doesn’t happen on a sustained basis in a developed country.”
What to watch for
In an overbullish, overbought, overvalued market, fund manager John Hussman offers the following commentary about what typically happens after the final peak is made:
“In general, the initial decline from these peaks tends to occur as a sharp 6-10% market drop over a handful of weeks, typically followed by a partial recovery attempt toward the prior peak. This sort of activity both before and after major peaks gives the market the impression of near-term ‘resilience’ that dilutes the resolve even of investors who know the history of these things.”
A similar pattern was found in 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007.
“In general, the initial decline from these peaks tends to occur as a sharp 6-10% market drop over a handful of weeks, typically followed by a partial recovery attempt toward the prior peak. This sort of activity both before and after major peaks gives the market the impression of near-term ‘resilience’ that dilutes the resolve even of investors who know the history of these things.”
A similar pattern was found in 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007.
Sunday, May 19, 2013
Repeat or Rhyme?
What to do? You're long gold, but the price just keeps going down. Personally, while tough, I have tried to remember two things. First, that the fundamental story remains in tact. That matters a lot, despite what gyrations come in the near term because of momo monkeys and the HFT crowd. The second bit relates to history. Back in the bull market of the '70s, gold experienced a 50% correction (yes, you read that correctly) between 1974 and 1976.
Speaking of which, I came across a very interesting chart this weekend (h/t Jesse's Cafe Americain) in which the recent price action in gold was overlayed with the end of that cyclical bear in 1976.
Paul Tudor Jones, the very successful investor/trader of the past 30 years, traded the market in 1987 brilliantly, as he was able to identify chart similarities then with the market from a particular year in the 1930s (maybe 1937?). And, as the saying goes, history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it sure does rhyme. Perhaps we have our own roadmap as well now.
Speaking of which, I came across a very interesting chart this weekend (h/t Jesse's Cafe Americain) in which the recent price action in gold was overlayed with the end of that cyclical bear in 1976.
Paul Tudor Jones, the very successful investor/trader of the past 30 years, traded the market in 1987 brilliantly, as he was able to identify chart similarities then with the market from a particular year in the 1930s (maybe 1937?). And, as the saying goes, history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it sure does rhyme. Perhaps we have our own roadmap as well now.
Friday, May 17, 2013
Optimism and Fools
Bill Fleckenstein wrote an interesting piece today. He argued that the spike in gold to $1,900 in 2011 probably represented the apex of global deflationary fears. But, since then, the world has gotten comfortable with the steps taken by central bankers and governments (i.e., massive amounts of money printing), blissfully unaware of any potential consequences, so the fear has dissipated. What we're left with is a world awash in liquidity, searching for yield, but not scared any longer of a debt deflation spiral. So, who needs gold.
I think he's probably right. For the most part, I have taken the position that deflation was the driving fear out there, as most people have a blind spot for inflation. And, at a minimum, do not see where inflation can be just as dangerous as its counterpart.
In any event, my takeaway is that those who hold gold will need to be patient. As long as the market climbs higher, and sovereign yields stay low, the cheerleaders will continue to drown everything else out. But, with great conviction, I do not believe that it will last forever.
I think he's probably right. For the most part, I have taken the position that deflation was the driving fear out there, as most people have a blind spot for inflation. And, at a minimum, do not see where inflation can be just as dangerous as its counterpart.
In any event, my takeaway is that those who hold gold will need to be patient. As long as the market climbs higher, and sovereign yields stay low, the cheerleaders will continue to drown everything else out. But, with great conviction, I do not believe that it will last forever.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Learning Patience
I wish I could offer up some profound commentary right now to explain the markets, distinct from what anybody else has said. But I can’t. All I know is that the market seems scary unless you’re nimble enough to dance in and out. And the past 20 months for gold – simply brutal.
Anyway, going off on a tangent for a second, there was a period of my life that I spent as a day trader. I wasn’t terribly good. The upshot was a flat record in an up market. It was in that period where I used technical analysis as the engine for my trades, but I was probably too cute by half, as I kept falling back on fundamental reasoning that led me to be skeptical of the bull and what the charts were telling me. In fact, the answer to the question should have always been just don’t fight the Fed.
And, in reading that last paragraph back to myself, it may sound like a bit of capitulation on my part. Not so much. Here’s what I continue to believe:
-The economy is weak. Most economic data points have come in below expectations. And even the upside surprises, like April jobs, don’t really hold up to scrutiny (my favorite anecdote is that even with the 165,000 jobs created, of which 193,000 came from the birth/death model (?), hours worked went down by .2 hours – which means the jobs number really needed to be more like 700,000 in order to make up for all the working hours that disappeared).
-There is a genuine currency war going on. Lately, it’s been the Yen outperforming to the downside, with dollar strength as a result. But, the pole position is not going to be stagnant.
-The market will continue to melt up, but don’t do it. Staying in cash makes plenty of sense right now.
-I think we are starting to see interesting volatility in certain markets that portends of something wicked. I think about the JGB market for starters. As mentioned, I have gained some exposure on the short side recently because I think the BOJ does not have nearly as much control over the forces at work as they’d like to believe. And if things start to get out of hand, there will be global implications. I have steadfast conviction that the bond market in Japan will revolt over the next 12-24 months (perhaps sooner).
-Turning to gold for a second. The chart looks horrible. But, I’d still rather have gold than paper. The dynamics at work which helped to end the bear market about 13 years ago continue to be in place, only in even greater portions. That doesn’t mean that the near-term won’t be trying. I hear all the naysayers also, and it’s amazing how much an asset class that has outperformed so admirably can still be so utterly despised.
-Back to the stock market, the story goes that we are in a bull market, that it is sustainable, and that because so many people remain skeptical, it is evidence that it will go higher. Here’s my counter-offer: all the surveys out there point to a much higher share of bulls than bears, margin debt now exceeds levels seen in 2007, and we also know that the same folks cheerleading now are the same folks who didn’t see 2001 and 2008 coming. Put in combination, we are in bubble land again. For how long is anybody’s guess. But, it won’t last forever, and it won’t be pretty when it ends.
-The Fed is trapped. They are putting out signals that QE programs will begin to wind down, but trust me, the idea that rates can rise and they will be able to unwind gracefully is as believable as cold fusion. The end of easing and easy money will not be done at a time and place of the Fed’s choosing.
So, there you go. I have watched my net worth decline in recent times, and been wrong at most junctures, but remember the money is made when you’re ahead of the curve, not when you’re running with the masses. I expect to be wrong until suddenly I am right.
Anyway, going off on a tangent for a second, there was a period of my life that I spent as a day trader. I wasn’t terribly good. The upshot was a flat record in an up market. It was in that period where I used technical analysis as the engine for my trades, but I was probably too cute by half, as I kept falling back on fundamental reasoning that led me to be skeptical of the bull and what the charts were telling me. In fact, the answer to the question should have always been just don’t fight the Fed.
And, in reading that last paragraph back to myself, it may sound like a bit of capitulation on my part. Not so much. Here’s what I continue to believe:
-The economy is weak. Most economic data points have come in below expectations. And even the upside surprises, like April jobs, don’t really hold up to scrutiny (my favorite anecdote is that even with the 165,000 jobs created, of which 193,000 came from the birth/death model (?), hours worked went down by .2 hours – which means the jobs number really needed to be more like 700,000 in order to make up for all the working hours that disappeared).
-There is a genuine currency war going on. Lately, it’s been the Yen outperforming to the downside, with dollar strength as a result. But, the pole position is not going to be stagnant.
-The market will continue to melt up, but don’t do it. Staying in cash makes plenty of sense right now.
-I think we are starting to see interesting volatility in certain markets that portends of something wicked. I think about the JGB market for starters. As mentioned, I have gained some exposure on the short side recently because I think the BOJ does not have nearly as much control over the forces at work as they’d like to believe. And if things start to get out of hand, there will be global implications. I have steadfast conviction that the bond market in Japan will revolt over the next 12-24 months (perhaps sooner).
-Turning to gold for a second. The chart looks horrible. But, I’d still rather have gold than paper. The dynamics at work which helped to end the bear market about 13 years ago continue to be in place, only in even greater portions. That doesn’t mean that the near-term won’t be trying. I hear all the naysayers also, and it’s amazing how much an asset class that has outperformed so admirably can still be so utterly despised.
-Back to the stock market, the story goes that we are in a bull market, that it is sustainable, and that because so many people remain skeptical, it is evidence that it will go higher. Here’s my counter-offer: all the surveys out there point to a much higher share of bulls than bears, margin debt now exceeds levels seen in 2007, and we also know that the same folks cheerleading now are the same folks who didn’t see 2001 and 2008 coming. Put in combination, we are in bubble land again. For how long is anybody’s guess. But, it won’t last forever, and it won’t be pretty when it ends.
-The Fed is trapped. They are putting out signals that QE programs will begin to wind down, but trust me, the idea that rates can rise and they will be able to unwind gracefully is as believable as cold fusion. The end of easing and easy money will not be done at a time and place of the Fed’s choosing.
So, there you go. I have watched my net worth decline in recent times, and been wrong at most junctures, but remember the money is made when you’re ahead of the curve, not when you’re running with the masses. I expect to be wrong until suddenly I am right.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Just Ignore Me
At least when it comes to my forecasts for gold. It's going down, and we're probably headed for a re-test of $1,321. The fundamental story remains intact, it's just the chart that seems broken.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Quote of the Day
Courtesy of one of Fleck's readers:
“I think what we sometimes forget, because we're so ahead of the curve, is that being a "contrarian" means being "wrong" for a very, very long time, until all of a sudden, you're right.”
“I think what we sometimes forget, because we're so ahead of the curve, is that being a "contrarian" means being "wrong" for a very, very long time, until all of a sudden, you're right.”
New Ideas
I might be a bit dizzy right now as a result of the gold situation over the past month, but here's what I'm looking to do these days:
-Increasing my short position in SAN
-Opening a short position on JGBs
-Buying a basket of stocks on the ISX (yeah...the ISX)
I admittedly have gotten a lot wrong lately. But it doesn't have to be a permanent condition.
-Increasing my short position in SAN
-Opening a short position on JGBs
-Buying a basket of stocks on the ISX (yeah...the ISX)
I admittedly have gotten a lot wrong lately. But it doesn't have to be a permanent condition.
More on the Gold chart
On Friday, I said that maybe the gold chart was in the process of forming an ascending triangle that could be bullish. Today's price action (with GLD as proxy) keeps that idea alive (with the uptrending support line holding, at least for this day):
And when you look at the chart for GDX, the ascending triangle is even more obvious with more bounces off the uptrending support line, and roughly $31 as the overhead resistance line:
And when you look at the chart for GDX, the ascending triangle is even more obvious with more bounces off the uptrending support line, and roughly $31 as the overhead resistance line:
Friday, May 10, 2013
Bearish?
I'm not sure that the break in gold today represents as much as some have implied. I am looking at the chart for GLD (might as well, since paper gold has been the driver lately), and mostly what I see is a gap up on April 24th (see yellow arrow on the chart below) getting closed. And then, since this morning, the price action clawing its way back towards and above the $1436/$1439 levels that have been identified as important.
So, what are we left with if I am to be believed? First off, there is now a gap down that needs to be closed. But, of more interest, over the past month we can see the makings of an ascending triangle -- a bullish phenomenon. As with most things, only time will tell. In this case, the next few weeks.
So, what are we left with if I am to be believed? First off, there is now a gap down that needs to be closed. But, of more interest, over the past month we can see the makings of an ascending triangle -- a bullish phenomenon. As with most things, only time will tell. In this case, the next few weeks.
Update (4:46 pm): With about 30 minutes to go until the spot market closes for the week, we are above the Maginot line, with prices hovering around $1,447 after going as low as $1,418 today.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
And One More...
"When there is a crisis, that's when some are interested in getting out and that's when we are interested in getting in."
-Carlos Slim Helu
(h/t The Short Side of Long)
-Carlos Slim Helu
(h/t The Short Side of Long)
Another Quote
"That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach."
-Aldous Huxley
(h/t The Short Side of Long)
-Aldous Huxley
(h/t The Short Side of Long)
Quote of the Day
“…in virtually all cases of major financial market fraud over the past 20 years, the only people who really brought forth the fraud into the light were either internal whistleblowers, the press, and/or short-sellers. It was not the normal guardians of the marketplace – regulators, law enforcement, external auditors or people like that - that did it. It was people who had an incentive to come forward either for personal reasons or for profit to point out what was going on at the Enrons and the Sunbeams and Worldcoms. Short-sellers played an important role in the marketplace not only in terms of capping, sometimes, irrational exuberance in terms of prices, but also in ferreting out wrongdoing.”
-Jim Chanos
(h/t Marc Faber)
-Jim Chanos
(h/t Marc Faber)
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